Fungoes

Fungoes has moved

2006-06-09T00:54:00.001-05:00

Fungoes, the official blog of the Bob Broeg (St. Louis) Chapter of SABR, has moved to a new home. Please visit us at http://fungoes.net.

Caption this picture

2006-06-02T17:46:00.000-05:00

Courtesy Yahoo! Sports.

All-Star Vote by VORP

2006-06-02T17:01:00.000-05:00

It's June, and that means it's the stretch drive for the All-Star campaign. Like the vote for high-school class president it's "not supposed to be a popularity contest" (which is kind of contradictory to having a, er, popular vote), but it is. Still, we can pretend that participation in baseball's midsummer classic is decided by meritocracy, so to that end, let's review the candidates based on VORP -- Value Over Replacement Player -- to see who is the most deserving. Following are the top five vote-getters at each position (as of May 30) and their VORP (as of Jun 1):

First Base	Votes	VORP
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals	726,854	40.0
2. Carlos Delgado, Mets	220,484	9.2
3. Lance Berkman, Astros	174,278	17.5
4. Derrek Lee, Cubs	131,359	7.9
5. Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers	129,034	20.3

The Great Pujols is that rare combination of a candidate who is not only the most popular but also the most qualified. And accordingly, the best player in the league has the most votes.

Second Base	Votes	VORP
1. Craig Biggio, Astros	303,616	12.6
2. Chase Utley, Phillies	286,247	21.5
3. Marcus Giles, Braves	153,988	1.9
4. Todd Walker, Cubs	150,322	9.6
5. Jeff Kent, Dodgers	140,691	9.9

Biggio appears to be the sentimental candidate, though voters still have a chance to push the more worthy Utley ahead. Luna (8.1) and Miles (5.9) together (14.0) make a strong case for a platoon spot on the National League roster.

Third Base	Votes	VORP
1. Scott Rolen, Cardinals	340,733	14.6
2. David Wright, Mets	292,335	20.9
3. Morgan Ensberg, Astros	198,930	19.1
4. Chipper Jones, Braves	184,331	12.4
5. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs	142,404	1.0
Miguel Cabrera, Marlins		32.7

Sco-Ro's having a tremendous season -- certainly as good as Cardinal fans might've hoped for -- but it's nowhere close to Mig Cabrera's. Only problem for Cabrera is that Rolen's got about four times as many fans watching him in St. Louis (40,743) as Cabrera does (11,570) in -- what team does Cabrera play for again? If you're at a Cards-Cubs game this weekend, you can always remind the nearest Cub fan that the Cardinals have not one but two third basemen who are better than Aramis Ramirez (Spiezio has a 7.8 VORP).

Shortstop	Votes	VORP
1. David Eckstein, Cardinals	284,547	16.0
2. Edgar Renteria, Braves	236,673	19.2
3. Jose Reyes, Mets	221,335	8.0
4. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies	206,780	3.7
5. Omar Vizquel, Giants	146,904	20.1
Hanley Ramirez, Marlins		20.6

Sorry, Eck -- you're lovable and you're producing, but the Marlins' Hanley Ramirez is the best shortstop that no one is voting for. Jeff Passan's buddy, Omar Vizquel, is a close second.

Catcher	Votes	VORP
1. Paul Lo Duca, Mets	273,059	8.5
2. Mike Piazza, Padres	264,787	6.6
3. Yadier Molina, Cardinals	256,270	-14.4
4. Brad Ausmus, Astros	186,933	6.9
5. Michael Barrett, Cubs	182,309	9.0
Brian McCann, Braves		15.8

Unfortunately for McCann, his team's fans are more concerned about the upcoming college football season than they are about voting for him for the All-Star Game. On the other hand, it's a good thing for YaMo that Cardinal fans are loyal and plenteous. After all, he's not even the team's best catcher (Bennett: -5.7 VORP)! Or maybe all of his brothers are voting for him...

Outfield	Votes	VORP
1. Andruw Jones, Braves	420,462	21.0
2. Carlos Beltran, Mets	341,769	21.5
3. Jim Edmonds, Cardinals	334,027	4.2
4. Ken Griffey, Jr., Reds	326,592	4.3
5. Alfonso Soriano, Nationals	273,373	20.7
6. Bobby Abreu, Phillies	244,212	17.3
7. Carlos Lee, Brewers	224,829	15.7
8. Barry Bonds, Giants	210,146	13.9
9. Adam Dunn, Reds	180,379	14.8
10. Aaron Rowand, Phillies	162,741	9.9
11. Xavier Nady, Mets	142,278	5.0
12. Juan Encarnacion, Cardinals	137,439	-4.6
13. Jeff Francoeur, Braves	136,478	-7.0
14. So Taguchi, Cardinals	135,178	0.5
15. Juan Pierre, Cubs	134,527	-5.3
Jason Bay, Pirates		24.7
Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks		22.0

Like multiple-term incumbent senators, old centerfielders are hard to get rid of. To wit, Jim Edmonds and Ken Griffey Jr., both suffering from injury and subpar performance, are having Ted Kennedy-like (read: inexplicably popular) showings at the polls. The best two outfielders in the league so far -- Jason Bay and Eric Byrnes (no, that's not a typo) -- aren't even in the top 15. By and large, the voters to this point don't even have the best player in the top five at each position. But a lot of ballot-stuffing can happen in a month, so perhaps the best players really will be voted in. Interestingly, the majority of the league's best players are from East Division teams (five) with the Central (two) and West (one) hardly contributing, unless you consider that Albert's VORP comprises about 20% of the entire NL lineup's. Oh, and if you're needing another barb to throw that Cub fan's way, try this: Hector Luna is better than your whole team*! *The Cubs' cumulative VORP-to-date is 6.0.

Quotebook: Cardinals 4, Astros 3 (11)

2006-06-01T21:33:00.000-05:00

That is a great situation because I was chasing a lot of balls before in my first two at-bats ... The pitcher has to pitch a strike, so I was just waiting middle.
-- So Taguchi

After So's semi-sombrero Tuesday, it was an apropos ending for the rubber game. Is it just me or has So become a classic Cardinal "feel-good reserve" in the mold of Jose Oquendo, Rex Hudler and Joe McEwing?

Another great game. All around. We all had to battle hard to win that game. The bullpen did an outstanding job. And it came down to an extra-base hit by Yadier, and So came through to win it all.
-- Jeff Suppan
That's what we got accustomed to seeing. Wainwright was tough. What was it, five innings? Just a lot of good stuff with great location. It was a big pick-me-up.
-- TLR

As I alluded yesterday, Cardinal relievers are most effective when they can enter the game with no one on base. While that's generally true, the Cardinals don't have any one relievers who is particularly adept at pitching with runners on.

Yadi got it started, a clutch double to get into position. Great at-bat from Miles, great at-bat from Luna. We had good at-bats from everybody. Even [reliever Braden] Looper put it in play. And then So capped it off. Those are a whole bunch of great at-bats, and they're all winning at-bats. Something found a hole.
-- TLR

Indeed, YaMo's double was key. Here's how the Win Probability played out in that final frame:

Play	WinExp	Change
B. Looper grounded out to second	59.6%
Y. Molina doubled to deep center	70.3%	10.7%
A. Miles singled to third	73.3%	3.0%
H. Luna lined out to third	62.6%	-10.7%
D. Eckstein hit by pitch	66.4%	3.8%
S. Taguchi singled to center	100.0%	33.6%

It's been a tough, tough road trip. I'm glad to get it over and get home for a while.
-- Phil Garner

Garner can partially blame himself for the loss yesterday, inasmuch as he mismanaged the endgame for the Astros. As I've said before, the bullpen strategy in a close game needs to be "downhill"; that is, you use your best relievers first, then gradually move down the list to less- and less-qualified pitchers. The idea is that you essentially ensure that if you do go down in ultimate defeat, you've at least used all your bullets. Garner foolishly had Mike Gallo on the mound (no disrespect, Mike -- you're a better pitcher than I'll ever be) when the game ended, which leads to this observation: It's seldom a good idea to have your LOOGy pitching to six consecutive righthanded hitters in only the 11th inning. If it's the 17th inning, and Gallo's got to extend, well, at that point it's a war of attrition. Garner left his second-best reliever -- Chad Qualls -- and his former best reliever -- Brad "Leonard Shelby" Lidge -- on the bench to watch the team's worst reliever expose himself to game-ending trauma. Unless they had undisclosed injuries that I'm not aware of, Qualls -- who last pitched Monday -- and Lidge -- who worked one quick inning Tuesday -- couldn't have been fatigued. Here's a little chart of the 'Stros' relievers, from best to worst according to Expected Wins Added, then the order in which they were used yesterday and the number of innings they pitched (DNP: Did Not Play):

NAME	WXRL	Order	IP
Dan Wheeler	0.780	3	1
Chad Qualls	0.695	DNP
Dave Borkowski	0.645	2	2
Trever Miller	0.436	1	1
Russ Springer	0.310	4	1
Brad Lidge	0.283	DNP
Mike Gallo	-0.955	5	0.2

LaRuncan, on the other hand, managed their 'pen perfectly, inserting each reliever at the beginning of an inning and working downward from the best (thus, Josh Hancock was only going to make an appearance if the game got to the 17th inning):

NAME	WXRL	Order	IP
Jason Isringhausen	1.818	2	2
Adam Wainwright	1.175	1	2
Braden Looper	0.631	3	1
Randy Flores	0.331	DNP
Tyler Johnson	0.258	DNP
Brad Thompson	0.189	DNP
Josh Hancock	-0.372	DNP

Again, you never should never lose a game with your best relievers on the bench. After showering, Garner might've watched the Mets-Diamondbacks 13th-inning affair yesterday, in which both teams used their best relievers first. The Mets, like the Cardinals, got more innings per pitcher and won the war of attrition by forcing the Diamondbacks' Bob Melvin to use his worst reliever in the fatal 13th inning. Kudos to the Cardinals -- both their relief staff and the coaching staff.

Cards win!

2006-05-31T16:00:00.000-05:00

Courtesy Nate, the lucky stiff who was at the game.

Quotebook: Astros 6, Cardinals 3

2006-05-31T14:03:00.000-05:00

Just coming up here and doing pretty well kind of gives me a gauge of what I need to work on and things I need to do to be able to stay up here. It seemed to me like these guys were geared up to hit fastballs early on, so I didn't really want to give them too good a look on it. I tried to use [all] my pitches.
-- Anthony Reyes

Despite the loss, Cardinal fans have to be pleased with the performance of Anthony Reyes. His command of multiple pitches is a very hopeful sign that Reyes has elevated his game. Baseball people constantly talk about the need to "adjust," so it's heartening to hear young Reyes talking about how he did just that in last night's game. He outpitched the suddenly-old Andy Pettitte (57-49 game score). In his two starts this year, Reyes has kept the ball in the park and the free passes to a minimum, and now sports a 2.52 DIPS ERA. Bullpen matters

I don't want to give up runs that a guy has left on. My job is to come in to clean it up.
-- Josh Hancock
I just made bad pitches. They hit them. And that was it.
-- Josh Hancock
A lot of times you come in out of the bullpen and if your first pitch isn't working, they get a base hit there.
-- Braden Looper

One of the things that TLR prides himself in -- and for good reason -- is his ability to put players in positions in which they can succeed. And that's why it was curious that he left Reyes in to pitch the seventh inning -- after all, TLR has a history of pulling a struggling or young starter once he's gotten a lead, in order to preserve the pitcher's chances at a win (and prevent a loss) and therefore boost his confidence. TLR probably pulled Reyes at least one batter too late, but that wasn't as egregious as leaving Hancock in to surrender Biggio's backbreaking home run, after Hancock had already been banged around. If, as Hancock admitted, he was consistently making bad pitches, LaRuncan needs to recognize it and yank the guy. And as Looper alluded, the margin for error in terms of "having your pitches working" is much less in a relief appearance, and that's something that the manager/pitching coach has to be aware of. Besides, the team has plenty of other weapons in the bullpen, and TLR has pulled pitchers after far more innocuous stints.

I haven't done a very good job of inherited runners this year.
-- Hancock

Sounds like someone has been spending his off-days checking his BPro stats: Hancock is worst on the team in Inherited Runs Prevented from scoring (the expected number of inherited runners that would score in the reliever's appearances based upon league average performance, minus the actual number the reliever allowed to score):

NAME	G	IP	InhRP
Tyler Johnson	9	5.7	0.3
Adam Wainwright	17	24.7	0.0
Ricardo Rincon	5	3.3	0.0
Brian Falkenborg	5	6.3	-0.2
Brad Thompson	20	23.3	-0.8
Braden Looper	19	21.3	-2.1
Jason Isringhausen	21	18.7	-2.2
Randy Flores	19	15.3	-2.2
Josh Hancock	20	25.0	-3.0

Speaking of not giving up inherited runs and using players to their best advantage, it's interesting that the team's best reliever -- as measured by ARP (Adjusted Runs Prevented from scoring) -- Adam Wainwright has yet to enter a game with runners on base. Unless LaRuncan is protecting the psyche of young Wainwright, he would've been the better bet to come into the seventh-inning jam (or Brad Thompson). Based on the numbers, the Cardinals' bullpen may have its strengths, but its weakness is bailing out preceding pitchers. Perhaps the strategy should be to remove starters after the completion of an inning? Sco-Ro Slugging Proof that there's more to slugging that merely home runs, Scott Rolen -- with a homer and two doubles last night -- upped his slugging percentage to .544, which is 29 points higher than his career mark. Curiously, his home-run rate is worse than his career rate, which would seem to contradict a higher SLG: But compare Rolen's six homers and .544 SLG with Juan Encarnacion's seven and .438, and it shows that Rolen's lack of long balls doesn't necessarily mean he's a worse hitter.

Quotebook: The House that Albert Built

2006-05-30T15:29:00.000-05:00

I think we're seeing something special. The funny thing about it is if he doesn't come through one time, you know you don't give him another shot that game.
-- David Eckstein
You just can't believe the numbers that you see up there. Everybody expects it and he continues to do it and that's what makes it amazing.
-- Chris Carpenter

The Great Pujols now has 13 home runs at Busch III, which is more than all of the rest of the team combined at the new park:

NAME	HR
Albert Pujols	13
Jim Edmonds	3
Juan Encarnacion	3
Scott Rolen	2
Scott Spiezio	2
Mark Mulder	1
Hector Luna	1
Non-Albert	12

I think it's safe to call it The House that Albert Built.

Hottest man on the planet with somebody in scoring position. At first, it looked like it wasn't going to go out and then I think the God of baseball grabbed it and pushed it out.
-- Houston manager Phil Garner

If there is such a thing as clutch hitting, Albert is certainly one of the game's foremost practicioners of it. Garner either reads his stats or knows intuitively (or both) that Albert is to be feared with runners on:

RK	Runners On	TEAM	OPS
1	Albert Pujols	StL	1.378
2	Bobby Abreu	Phi	1.179
3	Miguel Cabrera	Fla	1.141
4	Josh Willingham	Fla	1.082
5	Morgan Ensberg	Hou	1.056

RK	Runners in Scoring Po.	TEAM	OPS
1	Albert Pujols	StL	1.686
2	Moises Alou	SF	1.336
3	Lance Berkman	Hou	1.307
4	Barry Bonds	SF	1.266
5	Ken Griffey Jr.	Cin	1.233

And if there were a God of baseball, you can bet he'd have a goatee and wear #5.

And you could do some analysis on those 64 and you would probably find that not too many of them came when were far ahead or when we were far behind. They've been so clutch. ... It's because he's pure concentration. He separates every at-bat. He got beat by Oswalt, tips his cap to him and got ready for the next AB.
-- TLR
He's been so clutch. I don't even know how to describe it. ... He just gets a good pitch to hit and gets a good swing.
-- TLR

Tony, allow us to introduce you to WPA%. In the 22 games this season in which Albert has hit a homer, the Cardinals have gone 18-4. Nothing surprising there. But when we look at Albert's game-by-game WPA%, we see how much of an impact he's making: In the four games the team lost (in blue), Albert had a minimal or negative impact on the game:

4/18: -2.0%
4/28: -0.3%
5/3: -5.7%
5/28: 8.1%

But for the most part, when Albert homers, those hits make the difference in the game. It's not proof of clutchness, but it does prove the importance of the timing of Albert's circuit clouts.

There were a couple plays that if anything different happened, there is a good chance we don't win the game. One of them is John falling behind a tough lefty. He fouled off a couple of pitches and managed to draw the walk.
-- TLR

JRod and Albert remind me just a bit of the Hall of Fame Waner brothers, Lloyd "Little Poison" and Paul "Big Poison." Albert is big poison, and JRod is little poison, drawing the walks and clunking out base hits that set up the headline-grabbing home runs. With both JRod and Spiezio producing, when will TLR realize that their playing time doesn't have to be mutually exclusive? Let's see JRod and Spiezio in the corners, and give Juancarnacion some pine time. Marquiet?

Jason was throwing high sinkers that were getting away from him. He threw very, very few pitches below the waist the first three or four innings.
-- TLR
This was probably my worst one [of my last four] in terms of mechanics and location and my best in terms of keeping composure and staying under control.
-- Marquis
I was effectively wild if you want to use that term and made some pitches when I needed to.
-- Marquis

And yet it was his second-best Game Score all season and the second-best outing in his last eight in terms of Quietude (Q), my little pet metric for finesse pitchers. In honor of his "effective wildness," I added an HBP weight to the equation:

DATE	IP	H	HR	HBP	BB	SO	GB	FB	G/F	GS	Q
5/29/06	7.0	3	0	3	2	2	9	10	0.9	67	59.5
5/23/06	8.3	6	1	0	1	3	14	8	1.8	53	61.6
5/18/06	7.7	4	2	0	2	1	8	14	0.6	58	51.4
5/13/06	7.0	3	1	0	4	1	10	10	1.0	64	53.0
5/8/06	6.0	10	2	2	3	0	8	9	0.9	25	37.2
5/3/06	5.7	8	0	0	4	3	6	8	0.8	32	45.9
4/28/06	5.0	8	2	1	4	3	7	6	1.2	22	31.8
4/23/06	6.0	7	2	1	2	2	13	4	3.3	36	48.0
4/17/06	8.0	3	0	0	1	2	11	11	1.0	73	68.0
4/12/06	6.0	7	1	0	0	5	10	2	5.0	51	61.0
4/6/06	5.3	5	0	0	3	5	6	5	1.2	52	48.9

And speaking of wildness, I'm sorry, Jason, but finesse pitchers aren't "effectively wild." Randy Johnson, maybe, but not you. With Marquis's string of acceptable performances, could it be that he's unwittingly fattening himself up for a trade? It's probably unlikely now, with Carpenter on the shelf, but the question is going to persist into the summer on Marquis's peak trade value.

Caption this photo

2006-05-26T22:49:00.000-05:00

Courtesy Yahoo! Sports.

Addenda: Cardinal Oddity, Omar and Ozzie

2006-05-26T22:18:00.000-05:00

Three Cardinal pitchers get hits Something happened in Wednesday's schlocky tilt between the Giants and the Cardinals in San Francisco that I couldn't let pass, though I'm not exactly sure what to do with it, other than marvel at its novelty: The Cardinals had three different pitchers hit safely (Jason Marquis, Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper). Seemingly an oddity in itself, the feat was made stranger because none of the three hitting pitchers was the game's starter, and one of the hits was a home run -- hit on the first pitch that the batter ever saw in the big leagues. As if that weren't enough zaniness, with Marquis hitting a triple, Wainwright his homer and Looper a double, the slugging hurlers were a single shy of a cycle. (I should note that Marquis never actually pitched in the game, as his lone at-bat was to pinch hit for the starter, Brad Thompson, so technically he wasn't a pitcher in this game.) Anyway, just thought that was worth passing along. Oh, and one final rarity: Albert Pujols did not homer (though he hit a 365-foot single). More Metrics on Omar and Ozzie SABRen JP Caillault had the same idea that I wrote about yesterday, wondering whether Omar Vizquel is HOF-worthy. Whereas I used WARP3, EQA and FRAR as metrics, JP chose WARP3, Win Shares and BFW (batting wins plus fieding wins, formerly known as Total Player Rating, TPR):

Shortstop	WS	BFW
Cal Ripken	427	44
Barry Larkin	347	43
Ozzie Smith*	325	46
Alan Trammell	318	32
Lou Boudreau*	277	44
Dave Bancroft*	269	36
Phil Rizzuto*	231	19
Omar Vizquel	229	12

Using slightly different measures, JP arrives at the same conclusion: Larkin and Trammell deserve to be in the Hall of Fame before Vizquel.

HOF: Ozzie or Omar?

2006-05-25T14:44:00.000-05:00

With Ozzie getting some fresh ink from the P-D, Yahoo's Jeff Passan lauding Omar Vizquel's Hall of Fame credentials yesterday and the Giants playing the Cardinals this week (and yesterday's game not being particularly pretty), I thought it'd be salutary to compare the two outstanding -- and similar -- shortstops. Passan's article is heavy on qualitative analysis, and what statistics it has are somewhat secondary, such as sacrifice bunts and stolen bases. Passan sets Vizquel's career against the "modern" steroid-era player's stats, but Vizquel's HOF candidacy will likely be considered not in comparison to PED-inflated numbers but to the careers of shortstops already in the Hall, as well as the recent crop of "the shortstop era," none of whom are steroid suspects (Ripken, Jeter, Larkin). Using the Hall of Fame Monitor stat, I decided to compare Vizquel and Smith with some contemporary shortstops as well as HOFers who are less qualified than Vizquel (* denotes Hall of Famer):

Shortstop	Monitor
Alex Rodriguez	250
Cal Ripken	236
Derek Jeter	161
Ozzie Smith*	142
Barry Larkin	118
Alan Trammell	118
Nomar Garciaparra	115
Omar Vizquel	91
Lou Boudreau*	89
Phil Rizzuto*	87
Miguel Tejada	84
Dave Bancroft*	84

If you use the "better than lowest common denominator" argument, Vizquel has a case, with better HOF affinity than University of Illinois alum Lou Boudreau, the Scooter and Beauty Bancroft. Let's look at a few other stats. After all, the Monitor only tells us what to expect based on who is already in the Hall, not who should be there objectively. I've chosen Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP3), Equivalent Average (EQA) and, for a fielding metric (not perfect, I know), Fielding Runs Above Replacement (FRAR), all of which are explained below.

Shortstop	WARP3	EQA	FRAR
Cal Ripken	165.6	.281	775
Ozzie Smith*	135.5	.263	838
Alex Rodriguez	127.0	.318	400
Barry Larkin	121.0	.290	501
Alan Trammell	121.0	.280	572
Lou Boudreau*	107.5	.292	488
Omar Vizquel	98.2	.255	601
Dave Bancroft*	90.3	.260	532
Derek Jeter	85.5	.299	206
Phil Rizzuto*	77.4	.263	453
Miguel Tejada	71.2	.282	286
Nomar Garciaparra	68.7	.304	205

Ozzie may not be much of a "Cardinal" these days, but he was a better player than I give him credit for. Much of his WARP value no doubt derives from his fielding prowess, but his EQA, which measures only offensive contributions, reveals him to be Vizquel's hitting and baserunning superior. The more compelling HOF case can be made for Smith's NL positional rival, Barry Larkin. According to the Monitor, Larkin is eminently qualified for the Hall (certainly much more than Vizquel), and he's the best offensive shortstop not in the Hall. He and Alan Trammell are amazingly similar, and are both better bets for the Hall than Omar Vizquel. Now, if the 39-year-old Vizquel continues playing -- if as Passan notes, he feels closer to 28 -- he may equal Ozzie's Gold Gloves mark (13) if not his FRAR. He needs three more, but he's already done something Ozzie never did: win a Gold Glove after the age of 37. All told, though, I suspect it's more likely we'll see Trammell or Larkin -- more deserving players -- in the Hall of Fame someday. One thing's certain: When it comes to the Hall, Vizquel's not even close to to the Wizard. WARP-3: Wins Above Replacement Player. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, expanded to 162 games to compensate for shortened seasons. EqA: Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. FRAR: Fielding Runs Above Replacement. The difference between an average player and a replacement player is determined by the number of plays that position is called on to make. -- courtesy Baseball Prospectus

Around the horn: Facing Morris

2006-05-24T14:14:00.000-05:00

As it turned out, the five Cardinals who had faced Matty Mo previously in their careers made the most of their experience, going 6-for-15 with a .571 OBP. Juan Encarnacion had the most at-bats vs. Morris coming in, and it showed: He went 2-for-3 with a Bonds-aided RBI double and a two-run single. As a team, the Cardinals batted .308 vs. Morris, but the the players who had faced Morris did the most damage last night, accounting for most of that:

vs Morris	AB	H	BB	K
D. Eckstein ss	4	2	0	0
S. Spiezio lf	2	1	1	0
S. Rolen 3b	3	1	0	0
J. Encarnacion rf	3	2	0	0
G. Bennett c	3	0	0	1
BA: .400	15	6	1	1

But on the other hand, as I predicted yesterday, Morris had the advantage on his former mates -- at least those who had never faced him before:

vs Morris	AB	H	BB	K
A. Pujols 1b	3	1	0	0
J. Edmonds cf	2	0	1	0
A. Miles 2b	3	1	0	0
J. Marquis p	3	0	0	1
BA: .182	11	2	1	1

Isn't it fun when a small sample size breaks your way and makes you look like a genius? In the other dugout, Mike Matheny couldn't take advantage of his intimate knowledge of Jason Marquis's repertoire but did coax a 9th-inning RBI walk out of Jason Isrinhausen (by the way, tell me you weren't pulling for Matheny on that at-bat... I know I was.). Missing Mike Speaking of Matheny, he showed why he was such an important part of the Cardinals' division championships with his textbook play on Edmonds trying to score. Matheny blocked off the line foulward, forcing Edmonds to not only break his stride but to awkwardly redirect his approach to the plate on the infield side. It took a good relay throw from Omar Vizquel, but Matheny gave JEd no chance to score on the play (of course, it didn't help that as he rounded third, JEd was looking back to see where the ball was). Cheap saves As soon as Kevin Frandsen bailed Isringhausen out, Mike Shannon boasted that Izzy now leads the league in saves with 15 (which happens to be one more than he has walks). Izzy may lead the league in saves, but not even in the top five NL closers (more than two saves) in WPA% per game, according to Fangraphs.com:

Name	Team	SV	WPA/G
Brian Fuentes	COL	10	7.3
Tom Gordon	PHI	13	7.0
Trevor Hoffman	SD	8	6.0
Derrick Turnbow	MIL	14	5.9
José Valverde	ARI	13	4.6
Jason Isringhausen	STL	15	4.0
Billy Wagner	NYM	9	3.6
Chad Cordero	WAS	6	1.5
Mike González	PIT	6	0.6
Joe Borowski	FLA	5	0.2
Tim Worrell	SF	6	-1.1
David Weathers	CIN	9	-1.3
Chris Reitsma	ATL	8	-1.7
Brad Lidge	HOU	12	-1.9
Ryan Dempster	CHC	8	-2.6
Danys Báez	LAD	9	-3.0

Cardinals fans will no doubt feel a sudden rush of schadenfreude at the sight of Brad Lidge's negative average WPA. Notice that the relievers with negative numbers have either lost or are in the process of losing their jobs... Longing for Lohse? Hopefully Carpenter's achy back won't degenerate into something worse, in which the team needs to replace him. But just in case, Ed Thoma of the Mankato (Min.) Free Press speculates that recently demoted Kyle Lohse could revive his career -- if he went to St. Louis:

That said, it’s certainly possible — even likely — that Lohse will emerge somewhere, someday, as a quality major league pitcher. He’s just 27 and he’s established that he’s capable of working 200 innings a year without injury. History tells us that sooner or later, pitchers like that figure it out ... It’s clearly not going to happen for him in Minnesota. Here’s a good guess of where it will happen: St. Louis ... Lohse is exactly the kind of pitcher upon which Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan have built their impressive reputations on. This manager-pitching coach combo has been working together since 1983, with the White Sox, Athletics and now Cardinals. They’ve done poorly with young starters — their highlight in breaking in rookies is Matt Morris, and he had two career-threatening arm injuries — but man, do they thrive with castoffs. From Dave Stewart and Mike Moore to Andy Benes and Chris Carpenter, they have time and again refined talented disappointments into rotation stalwarts. And besides, St. Louis is one organization that doesn’t shy away from Lohse’s agent, Scott Boras. Not that the Cardinals should be dialing Ryan’s cell phone, hyperventilating at the thought of acquiring Lohse. They can wait. Lohse isn’t going anywhere.

For Carp's and the team's sake, let's indeed hope that the Cardinals can wait. Bottom story of the day Bonds may sit out -- Yahoo! Sports headline Writer seeks ancedotes about One Tough Dominican New SABRen Malcolm Allen is wrapping up a book about former Cardinal Joaquin Andujar and needs the following input:

Eyewitness memories of his career, "brush with greatness" encounters at the ballpark or hotel, or anecdotes that haven't grown stale
Photographs from any stage of his career
If you're an expert about any of the teams he played for, relevant details about those clubs would also be great.

Contact Malcolm at malcolm@jammyland.com. Vintage Base Ball in the news The P-D has a fun story on vintage base ball in St. Louis and mentions my own St. Louis Perfectos in addition to our cross-town rivals, the St. Louis Unions (starring SABRen Brian Flaspohler and Brian Robison). Come out and watch the match this Sunday (the Cardinals' Marty Hendin and Bing Devine are expected to attend).

Around the horn (briefly): Lists

2006-05-23T16:44:00.000-05:00

Lists, I It wasn't apparently scientifically determined, but SI's Baseball's Most Feared Sluggers list included a few hitters that I listed yesterday in my slightly more scientific "best players in baseball right now" list:

Pujols
Giambi
Ortiz
Thome
M. Ramirez
Guerrero
A. Rodriguez
D. Lee
Delgado
Bonds

SI obviously picked the sexier names in baseball, but the end result is the same: Pujols is the best, and Bonds is far from it. Speaking of Bonds, ESPN has a fantastic article that adjusts his home-run totals for his steroid use. So not only does Bonds really need to top 715, he apparently should only have 616 to begin with. Facing Mo' Who has the upper hand when a pitcher faces his longtime former team? It stands to reason that the pitcher would, since he has spent four of every five days observing the hitters from the bench, his former catcher being the lone exception. I'm not aware of any studies to back me up on that, however, so I could be wrong (as I am wont to be). At any rate, here are the current Cardinals who've faced Matty Mo:

Player	AB	HR	BI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Spiezio	3	1	1	0	0	1.000	1.000	2.333	3.333
Encarnación	16	1	2	2	6	.250	.333	.438	.771
Eckstein	4	0	0	0	0	.250	.250	.500	.750
Rolen	7	0	1	2	1	.143	.300	.143	.443
Bennett	2	0	0	1	0	.000	.333	.000	.333

We'll see how well YaMo does tonight. Lists, II Curt Flood biographer Alex Belth names TLR in his "top five managers in the major leagues today." Ozzie Smith could not be reached for comment. Paging Jeff Nelson... Oh, sorry. He's apparently out of his office, getting ready to pitch for the defending world champs, reports the Chicago Sun-Times. Formula for winning in the playoffs? Following up on the discussion from the meeting last night, I found an older but good article that reviews Bill James's even older World Series Prediction System. The upshot is this: "The most important single factor, speaking statistically, is frontline pitching." This would argue against the need for a "big stick" such as Cabrera and for someone like Cabrera's Marlin teammate, Dontrelle Willis, whom the Cardinals are apparently scouting (Willis has been getting roughed up lately, but at least not by his own teammates). James's system also favors good baserunning, something for which Cabrera is notably not known (which, I must say, I observed at the meeting). SABR, as others see it The Hartford Courant's Matt Eagan sits in on another SABR chapter's meeting, that of the Boston regional.

May Chapter Meeting Recap

2006-05-23T11:09:00.000-05:00

Bud Kane reminded us that the St. Louis Browns Annual Dinner will be held June 8 at the MAC and will likely feature former players such as Roy Sievers, Ned Garver, Don Larson, JW Porter, SABR's own Bill Jennings, Don Lenhardt and Ed Mickelson ... Benita Boxerman presented some research on local restaurants where we might move our chapter meetings. We're looking for a suitable venue that is handicapped-accessible for some of our older members. Next month's meeting (June 19) will be at Maggie O'Brien's ... Animated discussion provoked by the venerable Rick Salamon about the Cardinals' need to "win now" as opposed to building for consistent division championships. Rick, seeing a quickly-closing window to win the World Series, advocated trading young pitching for big stick Miguel Cabrera. Counterpoints: Moneyball belief that the playoffs are a crapshoot and that St. Louisans would much prefer the Braves' model -- consistent winning over the long haul -- over the win-now model of the 2001 Diamondbacks and 1997/2003 Marlins ... No love for Ozzie from SABR members regarding recent newspaper kerfuffle with TLR. Members with good memories recalled that Smith has had a history of being a malcontent, even having rifts with Whitey (see Jack Clark) and being a contract holdout in San Diego (agent Ed Gottlieb took out an ad in the San Diego paper advertising "Padre Baseball Player wants part-time employment to supplement income," which led to Joan Kroc's offer to become her gardener). Apparently, Hummel's provocative interview of Ozzie Smith was a directive from an editor to find out why the Wizard hasn't been more active with the team ... Discussion about Selig's requirement that the Cardinals do something about the press box at the new ballpark before we can host an All-Star Game. The press-box roof evidently prevents journalists in the second row of the box from seeing the sky and parts of the scoreboard. But changing the angle of the roof would obstruct view for fans sitting in upper deck above the press box ... Overall reaction to new ballpark was positive. Still too early to tell if it is indeed a "pitcher's park," as Albert Pujols claimed, though it's 20th in Park Factor so far. Seating angles and light standards recalled old Sportsmans Park ... Consensus was that Bonds will leave baseball soon after passing Ruth's record, which it was noted by Matt Philip and trivia-master Bob Tiemann, is actually 715, since one of his out-of-the-park hits was considered a triple, based on old rule that counted walk-off hits only for however many bases they required to force the winning run home. Tiemann went further to suggest that The Sultan of Swat actually might've had 30 or more home runs taken away on account of an obscure rule that discounted long flies that left the field of play in fair territory but landed foul ... Surprise manager of the year? Jim Leyland of the Tigers. And if there were a coach of the year award, Leyland's first-base coach, Andy Van Slyke, would receive votes ... As always, Tiemann stumped the group with his trivia quiz. Topic: Runs and Outs.

Who is "the best player in baseball right now"?

2006-05-22T18:21:00.000-05:00

Albert Pujols magnanimously -- and perhaps foolhardily -- declared this week's Giant opponent Barry Bonds "the best player in baseball right now." Notwithstanding the legitimacy of Albert's other comments -- including how Albert "admire(s) the way he plays the game and respects the game" -- is this a true statement? We all have a pretty good feeling that Albert is the best player in the game today, and while no one can fault him for failing to acknowledge that fact, is Bonds even the second-best player? I looked at a few key stats -- VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), (Win Shares), RC27 (Runs Created per 27 Outs) and EQA (Equivalent Average) to score some of today's best players in a rotisserie-style ranking system:

	VORP	WS	RC27	EQA	Total
Pujols	1	1	1	1	1.0
Thome	5	2	3	5	3.8
Giambi	9	8	2	2	5.3
Hafner	4	18	5	3	7.5
Gomes	8	3.5	16	9	9.1
Ensberg	12	8	8	18.5	11.6
Rios	13	18	10	12.5	13.4
Tejada	2	18	23	11	13.5
Blake	6	41	4	4	13.8
Abreu	33	8	9	12.5	15.6
Jeter	3	41	11	10	16.3
Berkman	22	3.5	20	29	18.6
Hawpe	23	41	6	26	24.0
Lee	20	8	36	32	24.0
Delgado	34	8	26	35.5	25.9
Bonds	58	41	7	8	28.5

I'm sure Barry appreciates the love, Albert, but you've lost some integrity. Is it really worth it?

SABR chapter meeting tonight

2006-05-22T13:03:00.000-05:00

Who: Anyone (members or otherwise) What: SABR Bob Broeg Chapter monthly meeting Where: O'Leary's (on South Lindbergh) When: 6:45pm

Caption this photo

2006-05-19T16:40:00.000-05:00

Courtesy Yahoo! Sports.

Quotebook: Cardinals 6, Mets 3

2006-05-19T12:50:00.000-05:00

Marquis off the mark

I came back to my basics and I'm making pitches when I need to. I keep working hard between starts to try to get things the way I want. I can't rest on what I did, I've just got to keep working. I made better pitches today. My sinker was moving and had a little bit more action than it has in the past couple of months. That's what you try to do, to get them to mis-hit the ball. They weren't getting it on the good part of the bat.
-- Jason Marquis

Not to rain on Marquis's parade, but I wouldn't consider this game a confidence builder. Marquis didn't look that sharp nor did his sinker seem very effective -- his GB-FB rate was 8-14, after all -- and he got lucky on a few at-'em fly balls and had the good fortune of Met hitters' impatience. In fact, with the two home runs and two walks, he had a much worse qDIPS ERA for the game than Jose Lima did (7.74-2.78). Spiezio a Super Sub

He's been playing through a lot of stuff, so it's nice to be able to give him a day of rest and have the other guys step up. Spiezio went out and did a fantastic job.
-- David Eckstein
I haven't played that much there this year. Of course, we have a pretty good guy over there. Anytime I can get a chance to play, I enjoy it. Even if I get to play, it's a little bit of a letdown because you want to go out and see him [Pujols] hit a home run. Every day, my son asks me if Albert hit a home run, and if he didn't, he's surprised. He doesn't care about me. Then, when I say yes, he says, 'Incredible.' Talking about starting every day is probably not going to happen with [first and third] being my primary positions, but to fill in for those guys is fun in a way. You step in and come in [to the dugout] and they give you crap or give you a pat on the back. It's fun. I've been watching these guys, and now to play with them and see how they do it, it's amazing.
-- Scott Spiezio

Spiezio has a unique perspective and a healthy one, it seems. His recovery from his Seattle tenure is yet another reminder of the not-so-subtle role of team atmosphere in a player's performance. The common denominator is TLR and the front-office, both of whom have made personnel decisions to bring together players to create a dominant clubhouse culture that elevates team play, fundamentals and work ethic and subordinates the ego, foolishness and laziness. On that foundation, when "secondary" players like Spiezio are added to the mix, they take on the prevailing attitude of a winner, regardless of their previous environments. Spiezio has indeed been a super sub this year. In fact, both he and J-Rod have been among the best backups in the league. Among players who haven't been on the DL and have less than 6% of their team's total plate appearances (Runs Created per 27 outs, Value Over Replacement Player):

PLAYER	TEAM	TPA	RC27
Shane Victorino	Phi	62	10.2
Eli Marrero	Col	52	8.56
Matt Diaz	Atl	61	8.18
Scott Spiezio	StL	72	7.85
John Rodriguez	StL	77	7.33

NAME	TEAM	TPA	VORP
Shane Victorino	PHI	62	9.2
Matt Diaz	ATL	61	8.6
John Rodriguez	SLN	77	8.3
Chris Burke	HOU	40	6.8
Rob Bowen	SDN	30	6.6
Mike Lamb	HOU	48	6.1
Cody Ross	LAN	14	5.9
Ryan Church	WAS	74	5.8
Scott Spiezio	SLN	72	5.7

J-Rod on luck

Those are ones that keep you around. If you can beat those out, it starts to even out a little bit when you hit those line-drive outs. It does help.
-- John Rodriguez

The final line score -- which had the Cardinals topping the Mets in runs and hits -- betrayed the reality of a much closer game, or one in which it seemed the Mets actually hit the ball better. Though the Cardinals technically outhit the Mets 8-5, the Mets had more total bases (12-11), and with the exception of Miles' double, the Cardinals' extra-base hits were not particularly pounded: Eckstein's double was a seeing-eye grounder in the hole and Spiezio's was a clunker. If a couple of Mets' liners are hit a few feet in a different direction and the Cardinals hit a ball or two at someone, it's a different outcome. Such are the breaks in a single game that even out over the course of the long season. The Series

The nice part about that, you don't have to do any kind of special psyche to reach down for a little extra. Just the competition will get you going, and we had that the whole homestand. I much prefer winning the first two and then we go for the gusto in the third. ... The goal is to win the series ... Just win the series.
-- TLR
It was big for us. You like to see how you're going to match up. But you know Tony. Our goal is to go out there and win every single series ... It's like, 'All right, let's win the series.' By the time we go out on the field the next day, it's already been said, let's put it that way.
-- David Eckstein

With Lima having been slated for the third game, it was almost like having at least one win preordained. All the same, a series victory is a series victory, and, for the Cardinals, it's even better against the Mets. Izzy "saved" both of the wins, but that brings up an interesting point. One of flaws of the save statistic is that what Izzy did Wednesday is statistically the same as what he did Thursday. When he entered the game Wednesday in the 9th with the bases loaded, one out and David Wright at the plate, Izzy registered a whopping 46.6% WPA, the highest of any player, and quite likely the highest he'll have all season. Thursday, pitching an easy 9th with a 3-run lead and none on, his WPA was a mere 3.7%. Yet, in the indiscriminate world of the Save, they were equal performances. Any air of dominance the Mets asserted in their 8-3 rain-delayed romp on Tuesday vanished when they trotted the journeyman Lima out to start the Thursday's game. There's something emotionally/mentally different from having a has-been fill in a few spot starts as opposed to calling up a yet-unprepared young pitcher -- as the Cardinals will do Saturday with Anthony Reyes. It smacks of desperation rather than confidence. Even in the best-case scenario -- a win -- the team still has to deal with the image of having AAAA castoffs (Lima/Royals, Jeremi Gonzalez/Devil Rays) in the rotation. Not a very intimidating face to division rivals looking to gain ground. It's the pitching equivalent of the expression that it's better to keep quiet and let someone assume you're an idiot than to open your mouth and prove it. A young pitcher can still have his best days ahead of him; a journeyman is usually washed up. Retire already, Jose. You've got a pretty wife and a decent singing voice, and you continue to act and look like a clown (see: fist pump after striking out Rolen to end the 2nd -- after four runs had scored). This headline says it all: Lima moves up on the RSAA list (that's the all-time list for worst career Runs Saved Above Average) Jose, it was fun while it lasted -- if you can't leave on a high note, just leave as soon afterward as you can.

Cardinals 1, Mets 0: Good and Bad

2006-05-18T11:23:00.000-05:00

The Good: Mark Mulder threw 8 1/3 shutout innings. The Good: Mulder had two base hits. The Bad: They accounted for half of the team's total. The Bad: The Mets held Albert Pujols hitless again. The Good: He still created a run (the run). The Better: The Cardinals won, anyway. The Bad: Albert's making a fool of himself defending Barry Bonds. The Good: No one really cares that much what Albert says about Barry Bonds, inasmuch as we love him because he's a baseball player and not a commentator on The View. The Good: Mulder held the Mets to just four hits. The Bad: The Cardinals themselves managed only four hits -- against Steve Trachsel. The Reassuringly Good: Izzy proved he could close out the game in a true save situation. The Bad: Juancarnacion went 0-for-3 and now has a .257 OBP. The Ugly: On "the only real one mistake" that Trachsel claimed he made, when he "hung a back-up slider," Encarnacion popped up. The Bad: The Cardinals go from their "second ace" last night to Jason Marquis today, whose lifetime splits vs. the Mets look like this:

IP	ERA	qDIPS	WHIP	OPS	K/BB	K/9
59	3.66	4.04	1.44	.755	1.55	5.19

Those actually aren't too terribly bad. But he's the team's quantifiably flakiest starter, so it's anyone's guess whether he'll follow up one of his best outings of the year with another good one. The Good: It's Lima Time. The Bad: The last time Lima pitched against the Cardinals, he shut them out in Game 3 of the 2004 Division Series (and did so in highly annoying fashion). The Good: That was almost two years ago, and this year, Lima has allowed 10 earned runs in his last 9 2/3 innings. The Bad (for Marquis): He may have lost his designated pitcher-pinch-hitter job to Mulder. The Good (for Marquis): It's Lima Time. The Good and Bad: Albert may get the day off. The Bad: Albert would miss the chance to rediscover his appetite against if not feast on Lima, against whom he's 6-for-16 lifetime with a .974 OPS (though that's below his career average). The Good: The Cardinals proved they can beat the "other" best team in the league. The Better: They proved they could win a tight playoff-like match with someone other than Carpenter on the mound. The Best: [Everybody] It's Lima Time!

Mets 8, Cardinals 3: Postgame observations

2006-05-17T15:55:00.000-05:00

The Great Glavine: I'm not trying to pick on the P-D's Joe Strauss, but I feel compelled to clarify his claim that "Whatever the team he's with, whatever the situation, Glavine enjoys success against the Cardinals like no other starting pitcher." Strauss goes on to mention Tommy G's lifetime record and ERA vs. the Cards. Glavine's been tremendous against the Cardinals, to be sure, but a few others can claim the same if not greater success (leaders in bold):

	IP	W	L	Wpct	ERA	WHIP	K/9
Glavine	224.7	18	6	.750	3.61	1.33	6.0
Maddux	379.3	25	18	.581	2.63	1.10	6.1
Brown	77.3	6	2	.750	2.21	1.13	7.6
Clemens	57.3	4	1	.800	2.51	1.15	7.1
Johnson	93.0	6	6	.500	3.58	1.32	10.8

If you're talking Wins -- and I don't know why you would be -- Maddux is the active leader. Winning Percentage? That's the Rocket. The Big Unit leads starting pitchers in K/9, and Kevin Brown (you remember him, right?) is tops in ERA (though the definition of "active" starting pitchers is stretched). The Great (Uninjured) Pujols: If you're still hoping that the team isn't overly dependent upon one player, just listen to the fans. There was collective groan-gasp in the first inning after Albert fouled a ball off his shin, and another one when he slipped on the on-deck mat pursuing Jose Reyes's foul pop. Upon rising, Albert received the kind of applause that Juan Encarnacion only hopes to get after homering. He really has a hold on St. Louisans' hearts and hopes; John Donovan explains the Pujols magic. By the way, the grounds crew promptly removed the rubber-plastic mats, which got me to thinking that it was the first time I'd seen them removed from play (maybe I haven't paid enough attention). It seems like their removal would be a salutary standard practice after rain delays. McGwire treatment: After Albert fouled out in the 8th, the faithful fans that had stayed through the rain delay (or, like yours truly, those who had left and come back) headed for the exits. Question: If you've stayed that long, why not stick around for the last inning? At any rate, it brought back unpleasant memories of the mass exoduses at Busch II after Mark McGwire's final plate appearances. Rivalry redux? Probably only a couple thousand (if that) fans remained at the conclusion of the game last night, which led me to wonder, "How many fans would've stayed if it were 1985?" Battle of the bullpens: As Larry at VEB mentioned yesterday, the Mets made some quixotic offseason moves in trading starting pitchers for middle relievers. Yet, the game last night hinged on the teams' bullpens, and the Mets -- who featured new acquisitions Duaner Sanchez and Jorge Julio -- got the better end. With Mulder averaging 6 2/3 IP per start, and Trachsel 5 1/3, tonight's tilt figures to see some important bullpen innings, too. Gary Bennett the next Oz-zie? In a laudable show of late-night fan enthusiasm last night, a huddle of box-seat immigrants behind home plate took up the chant "Gar-ry Ben-net! Gar-ry Ben-net!" with two on in the bottom of the ninth. The great thing was, as few people as remained at the park, you know he heard them (Bennett lined out to center). At this point, I should praise the club for their "open-borders" policy at the new park, which allowed the boisterous fans to emigrate from the upper reaches down to the box seats. It may not be a good idea for the nation, but at the ballpark, open borders are a lot of fun. Patience, young man: When he pinch hit for Taguchi to lead off the 8th, Larry Bigbie swung at Duaner Sanchez's first pitch of the game and grounded out. I know Albert is on deck, so Sanchez isn't going to mess around with Bigbie. But is it too much to ask to take one pitch? If nothing else, you'd think the guy would want to see as many game pitches as possible, with as little playing time as he's getting. Hardiest fans: After a 1-hour, 41-minute rain delay, which player's fans are the most likely to still be at the ballpark rooting on the team? By my unscientific poll, it's Scott Rolen, judging by the number of #27 jerseys around me at midnight last night. Then again, maybe I was sitting in the section with a tour-bus group from Evansville...

MLB Milestone Update

2006-05-17T14:06:00.000-05:00

By Scott Allen Slugging their way to the shrine (or old guys padding their stats) Julio Franco Born: Aug 23, 1958 Franco holds the distinction as the oldest player in the Major Leagues for the last two years. Franco is one of 81 players with over 2,500 career hits and has played for 9 teams in his career that stretches back to 1982. Franco, however, is not the oldest player to record a hit. That distinction goes to Minnie Minoso. Minoso went 1 for 3 on September 12, 1976 at age 53. Twelve years after his last game in 1964, Minoso had 8 at bats in 1976 for the Chicago White Sox and then had two at bats with no hits in 1980. Nick Altrock was 1 for 1 for the Washington Senators in 1929 at age 52. Charley O’Leary was 1 for 1 for the St. Louis Browns in 1934 at age 51. Jack Quinn was 4 for 20 in 1932 for the Brooklyn Dodgers at age 47-48. Deacon McGuire was 1 for 2 for the Detroit Tigers in 1912 at age 48. Hoyt Wilhelm went 1 for 11 at age 47 for the Atlanta Braves. The oldest recorded player to play in a Major League game was Satchel Paige at age 58 in 1965. Paige pitched in one game for the Kansas City Athletics, but he was 0 for 1 at the plate. Franco could become the first player to record more than one hit at age 48. Jack Quinn’s birthday was July 5 so he may have recorded some of his four hits in 1932 before his birthday. Quinn played 42 games for the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1932 as a relief pitcher. Research website http://www.retrosheet.org/ does not have detailed boxscores for games played in 1932 uploaded to the website yet. Steve Finley Born: Mar 12, 1965 Finley playing in his 19th season has made the top 100 players in career Triples. Finley has seven triples in 2006 so far and is now tied with two other players with 119 career triples. Finley and Kenny Lofton are the only active players with over 100 three baggers and the first players since both George Brett and Robin Yount retired in 1993 to hit over 100 career triples. Finley also needs 42 hits to get to 2,500 for his career. For more on triples please see a recent article by John Walsh at the Hardball Times website: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/endangered-species-the-three-base-hit/. Craig Biggio Born: Dec 14, 1965 Biggio is climbing the all time lists in many categories with each game he plays. Some of these numbers thru May 16, 2006 include: 2602 G – 34th all time 9962 AB – 24th all time 1722 R – 22nd all time 2839 H – T-41st all time 620 2B – 10th all time 1573 K – 22nd all time 408 SB – 61st all time 276 HBP – 2nd all time 3000 Hit watch Biggio has posted hit totals over the last 4 years of 146, 166, 178, and 156. These numbers average out to 162 per season. This production in 2006 would leave Biggio with roughly 2957 hits or so. If think for one minute that Biggio would not be back for a 20th season at age 41, then you’re either crazy or delusional. With that number 3000 looming in front of him, Biggio would play 2007 for the Astros at $1 (Canadian – roughly 80 cents right now) to get the roughly 40 more hits he would need to ensure his enshrinement into the hallowed halls of Cooperstown. The Astros would also be foolish to cut loose Biggio after 2006. This career Astro will get his number 7 retired as soon as he decides to retire. The Astros should then also retire Bagwell’s number 5 as well since it doesn’t seem that Bagwell will be playing again and he and Biggio belong together. Most Hit By Pitch, Career You may have heard that Craig Biggio broke the record for HBP in a career in 2005. What you may not know is that Biggio only broke the record of the player whose career started after 1900, Don Baylor. Hughie Jennings actually holds the record for HBP with 287 in a career that spanned 1891-1903 with a few at-bats in various seasons until 1918. Biggio still needs to be plunked by the opposing pitcher another 12 times to hold this record outright. He was hit 17 times in 2005 and 15 times in 2004. He has 3 in 2006 so far. The record should be his alone by the end of this season. By the way, the next closest active player is Jason Kendall with 202. Kendall will turn 32 years old this year and averages nearly 20 HBP per season, and has 5 so far this season. Biggio might need to pad his total by playing next year to try to hold onto this record and get 3,000 hits. 600 Doubles Club Speaking of Biggio, he joined an exclusive club by hitting 40 doubles in 2005. Biggio is now one of 13 players that have over 600 doubles. All of the other members of this club are in the Hall of Fame (except for Pete Rose). Biggio ended 2005 with a career total of 604 doubles and has 16 already this year and put him at tenth on the career list. If he has a fourth consecutive season of 40 or more doubles, Biggio will move into 7th or 8th place on the career list. If he does end up playing in 2007, he will get close to 700 for his career. As you can see below, that is a very exclusive club indeed. Career Leaders for Doubles (players with over 600 listed) 1. Tris Speaker 792 2. Pete Rose 746 3. Stan Musial 725 4. Ty Cobb 724 5. George Brett 665 6. Napolean Lajoie 657 7. Carl Yastrzemski 646 8. Honus Wagner 640 9. Hank Aaron 624 10. Craig Biggio 620* 11. Paul Molitor 605 Paul Waner 605 12. Cal Ripken 603 *Through May 16, 2006 Career Leaders for Leadoff Home Runs Craig Biggio's home run on April 18, 2006 against Milwaukee was his 45th career leadoff home run and gave him sole possession of second place behind Rickey Henderson's 80. Kenny Lofton Born: May 31, 1967 The soon to be 39 year old Lofton seems like he will just not hang up the spikes. Reminiscent of Rickey Henderson in his final years, Lofton continues to play and for many different teams. Lofton is playing for his 7th team over the last seven years. With ten stolen bases this season so far, Lofton has 577 for his career and needs just 26 more to be just the 17th player with over 600 career stolen bases. Otis Nixon was the last player to reach 600 stolen bases in 1999. Lofton has hit four triples this year so far and with his second triple of the season on April 22nd against the Arizona Diamondbacks he reached 100 for his career. Lofton now has 102 and has averaged six per season over the course of his career. Johnny Damon is next on the list of active players with 80 triples. At only 23, speedster Carl Crawford already has 50 career triples and Jimmy Rollins (26 years old) has 53 career triples and Juan Pierre (27 years old) has 50 career triples. Luis Gonzalez Born: Sep 3, 1967 Luis Gonzalez joined 20 other players in the 300-homer, 500-double club on April 18, 2006 with a double against the Giants. The next night, the Diamondbacks presented the left fielder and his family with a frame displaying the base in a ceremony before the game. The jersey Gonzalez wore is headed to the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. Craig Biggio needs 36 home runs, Jeff Kent needs 19 doubles, Frank Thomas needs 51 doubles, Ken Griffey, Jr. needs 67 doubles, and Ivan Rodriguez needs 47 doubles and 34 home runs to join this club. Players with at least 300 Home Runs and 500 Doubles Stan Musial George Brett Carl Yastrzemski Hank Aaron Cal Ripken, Jr. Rafael Palmiero Barry Bonds Eddie Murray Rogers Hornsby Dave Winfield Al Simmons Lou Gehrig Frank Robinson Dave Parker Ted Williams Willie Mays Edgar Martinez Babe Ruth Tony Perez Andre Dawson Luis Gonzalez Jeff Kent Born: Mar 7, 1968 There are 18 second basemen in the Hall of Fame and ironically the most similar batter to Kent is another second sacker, Bobby Doerr. Kent has been putting up great numbers since 1997 when he went to San Francisco. The list below compiles all second basemen in the Hall of Fame excluding Frank Grant (Negro Leaguer), Bid McPhee (19th century player), Rod Carew (due to his split career between 2B and 1B) and Jackie Robinson (due to his short career because of segregation). Most of the players listed have played a similar amount of games. Hall of Fame 2nd Basemen Lajoie, N. Evers, J. Collins, E. Hornsby, R. Frisch, F. Gehringer, C. Lazzeri, T. Herman, B. Doerr, B Schoendienst Fox, N. Mazeroski, B. Morgan, J. Sandberg, R. Biggio, C. (Active) Kent, J. (Active) Of the Hall of Fame second basemen listed, Kent already has the most number of home runs and most strikeouts and is ranked 4th on the list in RBI. His career average falls right in the area (around .290) of the Hall of Fame second basemen that played during or after World War II. Kent has started the 2006 season slowly but if he does play another year or two he will likely be an addition to the list of Hall of Fame second basemen. He will not be the first ballot Hall of Famer, but will likely not need to be added by the Veterans Committee either. Kent’s numbers compare favorably with most players on the list besides maybe Lajoie, Collins, and Hornsby; all pre-World War II players. While Jeff Kent is not a hitting machine like these three players, he has a chance to have the most RBI by a 2B and 3rd or 4th most doubles. By the way, Craig Biggio will also be joining this list after he retires even though he played three full seasons as a catcher and two full seasons as an outfielder. Biggio may even make it as a first ballot entry if he does make 3,000 hits and depending on the other players on the ballot that year. I would say that it would be hard to leave him off because of no bad blood with the media over the years and his consistant, steady hard-nosed brand of baseball. Frank Thomas Born: May 27, 1968 Frank Thomas needs 17 more RBI and 19 BB to put him over 1500 for his career. There are only 43 players with over 1500 RBI and 15 players with over 1500 walks. With nagging injuries and diminishing skills and playing time he will likely not have a chance to get 3000 hits or 1500 runs scored. Nevertheless, Thomas only needs 45 HR and 51 doubles to reach the star studded 500 2B/500 HR club noted below. If you remember, when Thomas started in 1991 as a full time player in his second season he started a seven year run of hitting over .300 AVG, 100 R, 20 HR, 100 RBI, and 100 BB. By 1998 when he only hit .265 but still put up over 100 R, 20 HR, 100 RBI and 100 BB Thomas could have had the baseball writers filling out their Hall of Fame ballots already. With that start to his career in mind, it’s hard to believe that “The Big Hurt” will likely be on the outside looking in after his career is over. Manny Ramirez Born: May 30, 1972 Ramirez needs 86 doubles and 58 home runs for 500 doubles and 500 home runs. Only eight other players have accomplished that feat (see below). If Manny Ramirez has over 100 RBI this year then he will have over 1514 for his career and put himself in the top 50 all time. There are only 43 players with over 1500 RBI. Players with at least 500 Home Runs and 500 Doubles Hank Aaron Babe Ruth Barry Bonds Willie Mays Frank Robinson Rafael Palmeiro Ted Williams Eddie Murray Albert Pujols Born: Jan 16, 1980 A day after hitting three home runs in consecutive at-bats on Easter Sunday in St. Louis, including the game winning walk-off two-run home run to beat the Reds, Albert Pujols joined Stan Musial (July 7-8, 1962) as the lone Cardinals player to homer in four straight at-bats on April 17, 2006 against the Pittsburgh Pirates. During his first at-bat against the Pirates, Pujols hit a home run 421 feet to the bushes in straightaway center field. It was the 35th time in Major League Baseball history that a player has hit a home run in four straight at-bats. Carlos Delgado, then with the Toronto Blue Jays, last did it Sept. 25, 2003. The previous time it was accomplished in the National League was by the Atlanta Braves' Andruw Jones from Sept.7-10, 2002. The St. Louis Cardinals are 31-10 lifetime at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park and has the most wins of any visiting club there. Pujols has 17 home runs at PNC Park, more than any visiting player. As a side note, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, Pujols' game-ending homer on Sunday, April 16th, represented the first time a player had turned a deficit into a walk-off victory with his third homer of the game. The home runs kept coming later in the week as Pujols tied Todd Helton of the Rockies for the second-fastest active player to reach 1,000 hits with his 11th homer of the 2006 season on April 21 against the Cubs. He and Helton needed 3,003 at-bats, or 26 more than Ichiro Suzuki of the Mariners. "It's great to have my name with those guys, the superstars, great players, All-Stars," Pujols said. "But my job is to help my team to win and that's what I did." Pujols set a major league record with the most home runs by a player in the month of April with 14. Obviously, he also set a franchise homer record for April, topping the mark of 10 set by Mark McGwire in his 70-homer season in 1998, with nine games to spare. McGwire hit 16 home runs in May 1998 and Bonds had 17 home runs in May 2001. Thru the Cardinals last game on May 16, Pujols had hit 19 home runs in 38 games. Only Cy Williams of the 1923 Philadelphia Phillies hit his 18th home run sooner, homering in his team’s 34th game. In 1998, McGwire had 18 in his 43rd game and in 2001 Bonds had 18 in the 42nd game. With four HR in May, Pujols will have to start hitting them hard and often to stay on pace. Pujols’ previous high in a season is 46 home runs in 2004. When Pujols hit his 19th home run of the season on May 13, he became the fastest MLB player to reach 19 home runs in a season. Pujols is also on pace for his highest single season RBI total. Pujols best RBI output in a season came in his rookie year of 2001 with 130 RBI. This year after 34 games played, Pujols had 43 RBI thru the game on May 10, 2006. In contrast, Manny Ramirez had 42 RBI on May 10, 1999 after 31 games on his way to 165 for the season. No player has had more than 165 RBI in a single season since Jimmie Foxx in 1938. Pujols matched Mark McGwire’s 1998 mark of 32 RBI in the month of April. Therefore, Pujols was on pace for 199 RBI this season. The record, set in 1930 by Chicago Cubs slugger Hack Wilson, is 191. Thru May 16th, Pujols has 48 RBI in 38 games. Thru May 16, 1999, Ramirez had 47 RBI in 36 games. Painting the corners to get their plaques Greg Maddux Born: Apr 14, 1966 Maddux keeps notching victories in his belt and adding to his Hall of Fame caliber resume. Three days after his 40th birthday, Maddux beat the Los Angeles Dodgers on April 17, 2006 for his third win of the season and 321st career victory and then pitched 7 scoreless innings against the Cardinals on April 23, 2006 to notch his fourth win and 322nd of his career. Maddux finished the month of April in perfect form by beating the Brewers on April 28, 2006 to start the season 5-0 and pick up win # 323. If Maddux wins 7 more games this year, not a big stretch of the imagination, he will be in tenth overall in career wins (see chart below). He reached 3,000 strikeouts in 2005 to become the 13th pitcher to strikeout that many batters. Now Maddux only needs 12 more to reach 3,100. Maddux will likely move past Bob Gibson on this list (see below) His career ERA stands at 3.02. Among active pitchers, only Pedro Martinez and John Franco have a better career ERA. Although he is not in the top 100 in career ERA due to the scoring during baseball’s Dead Ball Era. Maddux has also started 647 games in his career and is currently tied for 13th all time in that category, but may be near the top ten by the end of 2006. Only six pitchers have started over 700 games. Maddux is the first 40-year-old Cubs pitcher to appear in a game since Ferguson Jenkins made a relief appearance against Pittsburgh on Sept. 21, 1983, at the same age. Maddux is also the first Cubs pitcher age 40 or older to start a game (Jenkins, Sept. 9, 1983, against Pittsburgh) and record a win (Jenkins, Sept. 21, 1983, a 7-6 win over Pittsburgh). Career Leaders for Wins 8. Tim Keefe 342 9. Roger Clemens 341 (no decision on retirement yet) 10. Steve Carlton 329 11. John Clarkson 328 12. Eddie Plank 326 13. Nolan Ryan 324 Don Sutton 324 14. Greg Maddux 323* * Through May 16, 2006 Career Leaders for Strikeouts 10. Phil Niekro 3342 11. Ferguson Jenkins 3192 12. Bob Gibson 3117 13. Greg Maddux 3088* * Through May 16, 2006 Tom Glavine Born: Mar 25, 1966 Glavine is chasing his old Braves teammate Greg Maddux and trying to become the 23rd pitcher to win 300 games. Glavine started the 2006 season at 6-2 and currently has 281 wins. He will likely need to pitch in 2007 to get to 300 wins as there is a good chance he will have nearly 290 wins by the end of 2006 and if he pitches in 2007 it is within the realm of possibility that he could win ten more games. Glavine’s numbers have increasingly depended on the team and bullpen behind him. With Omar Minaya’s overhaul of the Mets, Glavine has a better chance of reaching this milestone than he did over the last three years. Glavine has never been a strikeout pitcher and will have a hard time getting to 3000 strikeouts, but may end up with over 2500 (2397 K to date). Glavine is also one of 19 other pitchers to have started over 600 games (612 GS to date) Randy Johnson Born: Sep 10, 1963 Although he will turn 43 later this summer, Randy Johnson is on the right team to get 32 more wins and get to 300 for his career. Johnson started the 2006 season 5-4 and now has 268 wins and 140 losses for his career. Although Johnson has not been sharp this year the Yankee’s potent offense has been scoring more runs than he allows. He currently has an ERA at 5.13. Johnson will also likely join Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens as the only other pitchers with over 4500 strikeouts. Johnson has 4408 strikeouts to date. Johnson also ranks 6th on the all time list for Hit Batsmen with 171 in 3637 2/3 Innings Pitched. In contrast, the all time record is held by Walter Johnson with 203 hit batsmen in 5914 2/3 IP. Mike Mussina Born: Dec 8, 1968 From 1991-2005 Mussina averaged 14.9 wins per year. Mussina turns 38 after the 2006 season. He would likely need to pitch four more years (until he is 42 years old) to reach 300 wins for his career. Mussina has never won 20 games in a season, but also has only lost more games than he has won twice during his career. Mussina has started the 2006 season strong with a 6-1 mark with one no decision and currently has 230 wins, a 2.56 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He has won his last five starts and may have a chance to reach his first 20 win season. If he does pitch four more years he will also be close to 3,000 strikeouts as he ended 2005 with exactly 2,400 for his career and now has 2,452 thru May 16, 2006. David Wells Born: May 20, 1963 Wells will turn 43 years old soon and after one start is currently on the DL. With only 227 wins, he does not have much of a chance to get to 300 career victories unless he pitches until he’s 50 years old. However, he is in the top fifteen left-handed starters in career victories. Although, if you want to count this as an achievement, Wells is currently tied for fifteenth in career home runs allowed. He may come off the disabled list by the end of May 2006 and start putting up some more numbers. Jamie Moyer Born: Nov 18, 1962 Although Moyer has 206 wins in his career he has no chance to get to 300 because he will turn 44 after the 2006 season. He made this list due to the number of home runs he has allowed over his career. He is currently in 12th place at 387 home runs allowed and when he gives up three more he will pass Jack Morris on the all time list. If he allows his normal number of home runs per year, he will become the 9th pitcher to allow 400 or more home runs. In his defense, all of the players I have listed here for other achievements have allowed over 300 home runs Pedro Martinez Born: Oct 25, 1971 Martinez notched his 200th victory of his career on April 17, 2006 against the Braves at Shea Stadium to become the seventh current player with over 200 career victories. Martinez then won his next two starts on April 22 and April 28 and got hung with three straight no-decisions. His career record after this game stood at 202-84. His career winning percentage after this game was .706, which ranked him third all time behind Al Spalding and Spud Chandler. Martinez will also likely reach another milestone before the 2006 season is over, 3,000 strikeouts. Martinez just needs 77 strikeouts in the rest of his 2006 outings to top this magical number. By the way, Martinez will turn 35 on October 25, 2006. If he finishes the 2006 season with around 220 victories he will likely need to play five more years until he is 40 years old to get to 300. However, with his other numbers Martinez does not have to get to 300 wins to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. For example, Martinez has a career ERA of 2.73. Martinez also ranks 3rd on the career list for WHIP at 1.0181 behind two Deadball Era pitchers, Addie Joss and Ed Walsh. Both Joss and Walsh had a career WHIP under 1.00. He has a K/9 IP of 10.250 and only Nolan Ryan and Kerry Wood have a better number. He also has a Hits Allowed/9 IP of 6.79 and only Nolan Ryan allowed fewer Hits per 9 IP. Curt Schilling Born: Nov 14, 1966 Although he has been a tough and dominant pitcher during his career, Curt Schilling will probably never be enshrined in one of his favorite places, the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. Schilling has a large personal collection of baseball memorabilia, but he may have to buy his own plaque to have one. Schilling spent time as a reliever early in his career and then pitched for some bad Phillies teams and also spent time on the disabled list. Nevertheless, he started the 2006 season by going 4-0, for the best start of his career and now is 6-2 with a no decision. However for his career Schilling is 198-133. Schilling will probably reach 3000 strikeouts this year as he only needs 116 more. Schilling has won 20 or more games three times in his career and struck out over 300 batters in a season three times. He has 198 wins to this point and will reach 200 wins this year, but he would need to pitch until he was 45 or 46 to reach 300 wins and that is probably out of the realm of possibility. Closers Making History Trevor Hoffman Born: Oct 13, 1967 Hoffman currently ranks second on the career list for saves. At 443 saves, he needs just 36 more saves to break Lee Smith’s career record of 478. At only 37 years old, Hoffman may very well break the 500 plateau and may even get to 550 or 600. However, Hoffman might have the same fate as other closers getting into the Hall of Fame. Bruce Sutter got in this year, but Rich Gossage, Lee Smith, and others like Jeff Reardon, John Wetteland, Randy Myers are on the outside. At least Gossage and Smith are still on the ballot unlike the latter three pitchers. Since he has pitched for San Diego since 1993, Hoffman has not had much of a chance for postseason glory either. The Padres were swept in the divisional series by the Cardinals in 1996 and 2005. In 1998, Hoffman had his best season, but the Padres got swept in the World Series by one of the best Yankees’ teams of all-time. Hoffman only pitched in one game and got hung with the loss. Mariano Rivera Born: Nov 29, 1969 The story for Mariano Rivera is much different than Trevor Hoffman’s. Rivera should have no problem getting to the Hall of Fame with his dominance over the past 11 seasons with the Yankees. Rivera has four World Series rings and even though he allowed Arizona to win their first World Championship in 2001 and allowed Boston to get into the World Series in 2004, Rivera will be remembered as one of the best closers of his era. At 35 years old and 386 career saves, Rivera may pitch another 5-7 years and will assuredly become the fourth closer to have over 400 career saves this season. Like Hoffman, Rivera may get to 500 or more saves before he retires. Billy Wagner Born: Jul 25, 1971 The next closer to reach 300 career saves will be New York Mets pitcher Billy Wagner. Through May 16, 2006, Wagner has 292 saves. Wagner may reach that mark before the All-Star break. Wagner will become the 20th pitcher to record over 300 career saves. Houston Astros Born: April 1962 For the first time since its first month of play as a team, Houston has a .500 franchise record. On April 18, 2006 Morgan Ensberg hit two home runs, Adam Everett had four RBIs and the Astros held on for a 13-12 win over the Milwaukee Brewers. The win, Houston's fourth straight, puts the franchise at .500 for the first time since the Colt-.45s, as the team was known, were 6-6 before a 2-1 loss to the Milwaukee Braves on April 27, 1962. The franchise record is 3,507-3,507, making Houston the 13th team in the majors with a record of .500 or better. "Considering that it's been since the 12th game of the franchise this is a pretty amazing event," Astros general manager Tim Purpura said. "Forty-four years is a long time, but just look where we have come from in the last 12 or 13 years. Since Drayton (McLane) owned the club we have just continued to pump out winning seasons and that's why we've made up so much of the ground." Houston's low point was 228 games under .500 at 1,254-1,482 after play on Sept. 24, 1978, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Astros manager Phil Garner briefly savored the milestone before moving on to a new goal. "It means that the franchise has been pretty successful," he said. "I don't think there are many franchises who play over .500 at this point. It's a pretty significant milestone. Our objective now is to just stay way above it." Like Purpura, Craig Biggio said the mark is noteworthy because it is a testament to the team's success over the past decade. "It's pretty nice because we've made up a lot of ground," he said. "We're focusing on this season, but over the last 10-to-12 years our fans have had a lot to cheer about and you can't say that for every franchise." The Astros are 22-18 thru May 16, 2006. The franchise won-loss record now stands at 3,519-3,521, just two games under .500. Research sources: http://www.retrosheet.org/ http://www.baseball-reference.com/ www.yahoo.com/sports http://www.espn.go.com/

It happens every Summer

2006-05-16T11:13:00.000-05:00

The Cardinals-Mets rivalry returns to St. Louis for what has become, lamentably, a mere annual event: the Busch Stadium half of the football-like home-and-home season series between the two teams. Whereas they once played 18 games against each other in a season, they are now lucky to play six -- as many as they play against some American League teams. And while they no longer play in the same division, no longer resemble their '80s antecedents -- the speedy Cardinals or the brash Mets -- and neither Chris Carpenter nor Pedro Martinez will pitch in the series, the rivalry is still special and the games this week have a certain sense of foreshadowing -- and perhaps foreboding -- for the end of the season. (Click for full-size image) Many Cardinal fans are by now aware of the Curse of Keith Hernandez, which has been in effect since June 15, 1983. But like many curses, this one probably has a statute of limitations, and in fact, may actually be wearing off gradually. As the chart below shows, the Cardinals have been winning the head-to-head season series with the Mets with greater frequency (see trendline in red). As the events timeline shows, the once tumultuous and acrid conflict between Hernandez and the Cardinals -- a microcosm for the rivalry itself -- has abated and mellowed, with Hernandez's own comments serving to mollify the relationship between Cardinals fans and himself. And yet the curse remains. One need look no further than tonight's Cardinal starter, Jeff Suppan, to be reminded of the impact that the curse wrought not even two years ago in the 2004 World Series. Suppan, of course, still inexplicably wears Hernandez's old #37, which increasingly appears to be the last obstacle to undoing the curse. In my preliminary research into a predictive model for retiring Cardinal uniform numbers, I've found that it's unlikely that Hernandez's number will be retired. But it's clearly an untenable position to keep it in currency. May I propose a third way: Reserve #37. That is, rather than retire or continue to issue the number, remove it from the field of play, never to hex another Cardinal player or team again until the Cardinals win the World Series again. It would be a unique situation, of course, in which the number is neither retired nor used, but remember, dire circumstances often require creative solutions. For their part, the Mets have tried to bring a Keith Curse upon themselves recently, assigning emergency call-up Jose Lima number 17, Mex's old number with the Mets. When the Mets faced the Brewers last Friday, Lima came in with a 10-0 record and 1.92 earned-run average in 14 appearances against Milwaukee. But, with the #17 stitched on his back like an albatross, promptly imploded and couldn't make it out of the fifth inning and the Mets lost 9-6. Coincidence? Unfortunately, since "Lima Time" still reads "17," we may never know. For what it's worth, the Mets have not retired Mex's number, either. I need to send Sebek an email requesting that he print up some "Reserve #37!" t-shirts as soon as possible. The Cardinals' season may depend on it.

Quotebook: Diamondback 7, Cardinals 6

2006-05-15T14:43:00.000-05:00

I don't know. It seems like some strange stuff is going on. But I've got a start in five days. So you move on.
-- Chris Carpenter
Baseball is baseball. I've said it before: You can do everything right in this game and fail, and everything wrong and still succeed. He's been on the wrong end of that. We're still winning ballgames when he's throwing, but it would be nice to get him a win. Carp pitched a great game.
-- Aaron Miles
It's a joke. He should have eight wins by now.
-- Jim Edmonds

Presumably JEd isn't referring to Wins being the joke, but he easily could be. For those fans -- and apparently, players -- still hung up on pitcher wins and losses, Baseball Prospectus estimates that the 3-2 Carpenter's record should be 4.7-1.9. It just so happens that Carpenter is the unluckiest* pitcher on the team and 11th in the league. Part of that luck is manifested in Carp's bullpen support, or I should say, lack thereof. He has the team's worst bullpen support, which is to say that his relievers allow more runs charged to Carp after he leaves the game than an average bullpen would. In yesterday's game, Carp completed a full six innings, so he didn't bequeath any baserunners, but the bullpen let him down all the same. *Luck, as measured by the number of extra wins, and short losses the pitcher actually got, versus his expected record. LUCK = (W-E(W))+(E(L)-L) (courtesy Baseball Prospectus)

I can't control what goes on behind me. I can only control what I do, and that's trying to make pitches.
-- Chris Carpenter

Well put, Carp. Presumably, he's never been to a SABR meeting or browsed Baseball Prospectus, yet he has a good grasp of the premise behind the Three True Outcomes. The P-D's Joe Strauss observes that "Disparity between what Carpenter has given his team and what he has received has never been more obvious than Sunday, when the Redbirds committed two errors before scraping their first hit in the fifth inning." But that's exactly the point. Once the ball leaves the pitcher's hand, he has no control over the resulting play, which includes fielder errors. And that's only the half of it: Carp has absolutely nothing to do with how his team produces runs (except a handful of his own plate appearances each year), so why do we still obsess over Wins? In the spirit of Carpenter's eloquent description of self-purpose, let's focus on what he does control, last season and this season (stat definitions):

	2006		2005
Stat	Value	NL Rank	Value	NL Rank
K/BB	2.81	13	4.18	3
K/9	6.86	13	7.93	12
AGS	60	6	6.14	3
DERA	3.88	14	3.09	4
G/F	2.21	7	1.98	7

So Carp's pretty much the same old Carp, though perhaps a half-notch off his 2005 campaign.

He goes out there and does a great job for us, and we do nothing for him while he's in the game.
-- David Eckstein

Eck may be referring more to the fielding than to the batting, or he may simply be responding too harshly in his guilt. Sure, the team let Carp down yesterday. It's not cause for self-flagellation. As for run support, the team this year isn't exactly the Roger Clemens' Astros of 2005: Carp is 23rd in the league in run support with 5.19 runs scored (average, per 9 innings pitched, as the pitcher of record). He was 9th in the league last year and 34th in 2004, so it doesn't seem to be related in any way to Carp. And the .32 runs/9IP from 2005 to 2006 is hardly a difference worth lamenting.

I stink. You can write that.
-- Scott Rolen

In the binary world of Wins and Losses, yesterday's game was a simple loss, a tick in the bad column, one of probably no fewer than 60 even if it's a good year. And the Cardinals won two of three from a good team. But judging from some of the post-game remarks, the team took this loss harder than most. Maybe it's because a team feels worse after losing a game in which their ace pitches. Or maybe it's because they really felt they could've and indeed should've won the game, as if the Diamondbacks had no business leaving Busch with a win. That attitude is the mark of a team that expects to win, but hopefully not the mark of an impending slump of frustration. Unless, of course, you're a Mets' fan.

Caption this photo

2006-05-12T17:39:00.000-05:00

Courtesy ESPN.

Two-way protection and lineups

2006-05-12T15:36:00.000-05:00

Which players are most vital to Albert Pujols's success, and vice-versa? Another way of asking the same question is whose fortunes are Albert's most closely aligned with? I checked out the season game log for Albert and his surrounding hitters in the lineup to see which batter had the greatest affinity with Pujols. My method was to determine the games in which the batter and Albert each reached base (via hit or walk) at least once. The idea is two-way protection: When a batter ahead of Albert in the lineup reaches, it's good for Albert. When Albert reaches ahead of the batter, it's good for the batter. Let's see who had the best simpatico with The Great One:

Player	On-Base Affinity
Rodriguez	116.7%
Eckstein	79.4%
Edmonds	78.6%
Rolen	69.6%
Encarnacion	65.5%

J-Rod's numbers are amazing, though they are a little misleading: Since I only counted games in which the players started, his pinch-hitting games aren't included. But it speaks well of him that he was successful in those pinch-hitting opportunities. He's clearly the most accordant player with Pujols. Speaking of lineups, I know that a lot of research suggests that batting order doesn't matter a whole lot. But that doesn't mean that certain players don't perform better in certain spots. Here's a depth chart based on the top run-producers by batting-order split:

	1	RC27	2	RC27	3	RC27
#1	Eckstein	5.71
#2	Rodriguez	6.32	Luna	5.43	Taguchi	3.15
#3	Pujols	13.88
#4	Rolen	8.49	Edmonds	5.74	Encarnacion	3.37
#5	Spiezio	7.60	Rolen	5.46	Encarnacion	4.72
#6	Spiezio	10.80	Edmonds	6.79	Encarnacion	5.43
#7	Luna	8.04	Molina	1.03
#8	Taguchi	10.72	Miles	9.95
#9	Mulder	7.48	Ponson	5.18	Marquis	1.45

Since this is based on actual performance in 2006 (min. 10 PAs), it's partly self-determining. For example, we don't know where David Eckstein hits best, since he only ever bats in the leadoff spot. But it gives us an idea of propensity. Assuming the team needs a catcher, the lineup could look like this:

#1	Eckstein	SS
#2	Rodriguez	LF
#3	Pujols	1B
#4	Rolen	3B
#5	Spiezio	2B
#6	Edmonds	CF
#7	Molina	C
#8	Taguchi	RF

You could also have an outfield consisting of Spiezio, Taguchi and Rodriguez. Either that, or to let JEd play, someone's going to have to teach Spiezio to put on the tools of ignorance, YaMo being such a liability with the lumber. Then again, he's better than a regular person.

Around the horn: Pujols and the bases-empty IBB

2006-05-11T21:38:00.000-05:00

Would you intentionally walk Pujols with no one on base? It's an interesting question of strategy. SABRen Pete Brewer recently wondered how rare intentional walks with the bases empty have been:

I checked Retrosheet to see how rare this really was and looked up every slugger I could think of who played during the Retrosheet years of 1957 to the present.

Assuming Pete hasn't missed anyone, here are the lifetime leaders in being intentionally walked with no one on base through 2005:

Player	IBB
Bonds	36
F. Howard	8
McGwire	7
McCovey	5
Killebrew	3

The strategy, of course, is twofold: 1) to avoid the damage that the batter himself can do, and 2) to set up a double play. The mitigating factors then are to have a potent hitter behind the batter and, even better, a hitter who doesn't hit into many double plays. Because the Cardinals have had just those two things in Jim Edmonds, Albert Pujols isn't (yet) on this leaderboard. Looking toward the future, I wondered how to quantify these "protection" traits into a single metric. The best players in overall hitting and avoiding double plays would be the best candidates to protect Albert in the coming years. It's all the more relevant, since the team has the option to bring JEd back in 2007. I devised a simple little formula -- I'll call it Pro, for Protection -- that includes OPS and plate appearances per GIDP. As Marv Albert would say, let's take a look:

Player	GDP	PA	PA/GDP	OPS	Pro
R Langerhans	2	373	186.5	.774	14.1
A Rodriguez	8	715	89.4	1.031	14.0
D Lee	12	691	57.6	1.080	13.6
A Dunn	6	671	111.8	.927	13.6
J Drew	3	311	103.7	.931	13.4
C Floyd	5	626	125.2	.863	13.2
B Roberts	6	640	106.7	.903	13.1
I Suzuki	5	739	147.8	.786	13.1
J Giambi	7	545	77.9	.975	13.1
J Damon	5	688	137.6	.805	13.0
K Lofton	3	406	135.3	.811	13.0
T Hafner	9	578	64.2	1.003	13.0
J Edmonds	6	567	94.5	.918	12.9
B Abreu	7	719	102.7	.879	12.8

This is based on 2005 stats for players with a minimum of 300 plate appearances. Obviously, Langerhans is a surprise and over time would likely shake out further down the list. But the list includes some usual suspects -- namely, JEd and Adam Dunn -- who are known for their hitting prowess and their propensity to strike out before grounding out. Most of Albert's protection candidates are either on the decline of their career or are locked up with their current teams. In that light, Edmonds may be the best option -- pun intended -- to have Albert's back in 2007. Carpenter and Gibson: career W-L records Yesterday, I posted Chris Carpenter's comment on how he had "to win a lot more games to be Bob Gibson-like." In deference to those readers who are interested in just how many wins more Carpenter needs -- not that that makes you an advocate of the Win stat, of course -- here's a look at each pitcher's actual and translated (adjusting for team performance, etc.) win-loss records (Carpenter's W-L from 2006-2010 -- 66-50 -- is projected by BPro):

Pitcher	W	L	Pct.
Gibson (actual)	251	174	.591
Gibson (translated)	287	112	.719
Carpenter (actual to 2010)	151	110	.579
Carpenter (translated to 2010)	167	117	.588

I'll leave it to you, gentle reader, to draw your own conclusions. I've already exceeded my personal tolerance for wins-and-losses discussion! McShamed Sad but true observation from Rob Neyer in response to a couple of readers during his live chat:

Clint (Slc, Utah): McGwire never did anything that was banned from baseball. Why should that possibly be held against him when he is up for HOF? Raffy did something that was banned. I fail to see how they are similar cases. As long as he did nothing illegal at the time..... SportsNation Rob Neyer: (1:34 PM ET ) It's illegal to use steroids that aren't prescribed by a doctor for a legitimate medical purpose. And frankly, if there was nothing wrong with McGwire using steroids, then why is he apparently so ashamed of himself?

Then later:

Nora (St. Louis): Did McGwire say he was ashamed of himself? I don't remember hearing that, just that he didn't want to talk about the past...are you saying that means he is ashamed of himself? SportsNation Rob Neyer: (1:52 PM ET ) Of course. If retired players who used steroids were proud of themselves, don't you think they would talk about it?

Hard to argue with that logic. His mission: Tell Barry he needs to swing his arms when he walks Cubs send rookie Marshall out to face Bonds -- SportsTicker headline Help wanted at Fungoes: No experience or wit necessary Writers could face more prison time than BALCO dealers -- AP headline Court to decide whether he can have Mother's Day LA man denied Mother's Day giveaway sues Angels baseball team -- AP headline Hope no one got hurt Brewers, Padres collide in rubber game -- SportsTicker headline Bottom story of the day Mulder joins the century club -- Ottawa (Ca.) Sun headline 1964 Cardinals: Cradle of broadcasters? Maxwell Kates ponders a peculiar legacy of the '64 Cardinals:

The recent discussion about Dick Groat raises an interesting point raised by Ron Taylor at a SABR meeting in 2004. Groat was one of several members of the 1964 St. Louis Cardinals to venture into broadcasting after hanging up his baseball spikes. Catching for the Cardinals was Tim McCarver, future broadcaster for the Phillies, Mets, Yankees, and Giants. Bill White, who later called Yankees games, was playing first. Centre fielder Curt Flood broadcast Oakland A's games from a college radio station in 1978. Mike Shannon has been the Redbirds' colour commentator longer than most members of the 2006 Cardinals have been alive. Even Lou Brock has experience as a broadcaster, filling in for the 1981 Chicago White Sox after Jimmy Piersall was fired in midseason. And finally we get to Bob Uecker, who has witnessed virtually the entire history of the Milwaukee Brewers from the catbird seat. Between McCarver, White, Groat, Flood, Brock, Shannon, and McCarver, that comprises seven future broadcasters on the 1964 St. Louis Cardinals - eight if you include "The Original" Joe Morgan's occasional guest spots with the Red Sox. Has any team featured a greater number of future broadcasters?

Bill Deane added:

Bob Gibson of that team also did some broadcasting. He did play-by-play for ABC-TV in 1976, joined KMOX radio in St. Louis in 1985, and later worked for ESPN.

Not only did that '64 team probably have the most future broadcasters, they had some of the most colorful broadcasters. Between those guys, you could really create some lively duos: Flood/McCarver, Shannon/McCarver, Uecker/Gibson (Uecker and anyone, for that matter. My personal choice for odd couple in the booth would be Hoot and Moonman. Any takers?

Quotebook: Cardinals 4, Rockies 2

2006-05-10T13:46:00.000-05:00

'Carp' definitely deserves this win. But you also can give the win to Albert Pujols, too.
-- Adam Wainwright

For a rookie, Wainwright's pretty astute. Then again, this was a no-brainer: Carpenter had 33.6% WPA, while Albert had 17.8%, accounting for more than half of the team's chances of winning. But Wainwright shouldn't sell himself short. He was third on the team yesterday in WPA with 11.3%, which raises an interesting question: If in a more perfect world we award the Win to the pitcher with the highest WPA, how about awarding the Save to the relief pitcher -- who doesn't get the Win -- with the highest WPA? (As always, props to Dave at FanGraphs.) Be Like Hoot

I said, "We need Carpenter to be Gibson tonight." And that's what he was. All that stuff that went against him, they had a chance to break it open and he was Gibson-like.
-- TLR
Hah. I've got to win a lot more games to be Bob Gibson-like.
-- Chris Carpenter

No sooner did I mention that Carp gives up too few walks to be a prototypical power pitcher (as defined by PFR) than he gives up six of them. If you're still scratching your head (like I am) about how walks connote power pitching, Hoot yielded six or more free passes an amazing 25 times in his career:

DATE	BB	SO	ER
5/5/1959	8	8	2
5/30/1961	6	6	3
6/16/1961	6	4	2
8/26/1961	6	5	5
6/3/1962	6	4	4
7/8/1962	6	4	1
8/14/1962	8	10	2
8/18/1962	8	9	0
4/21/1963	7	2	5
5/24/1963	8	6	3
7/21/1963	6	7	4
4/19/1964	7	8	1
4/23/1963	7	8	3
5/11/1965	6	9	3
9/19/1965	6	8	5
7/8/1969	7	6	3
9/6/1969	8	7	2
9/19/1969	8	5	2
6/7/1970	6	7	5
8/12/1972	6	2	5
6/9/1974	8	4	3
7/25/1974	7	2	3
8/21/1974	6	7	3
6/27/1975	6	1	2
7/3/1975	6	3	6

Granted, it was a different era, one in which starters stayed around a lot longer. Talk about effectively wild... Pitching to Pujols

We weren't going to walk him to load the bases for Edmonds, the matchups just get lousier. Guys that are thinking about that are guys that have nothing at stake in the game.
-- Clint Hurdle

With all due respect to JEd, the only matchup worse than pitching to Pujols with runners on first and second is Pujols with the bases loaded. At any rate, for us guys who have nothing at stake in the game, let's see just how much Hurdle was risking. They pitched to Pu and he burned them for a three-run home run, increasing the Cards' chance of winning to 95.2%. You don't have to be Bill James to know that those are bad odds. But if the Rockies walked Pujols to pitch to Edmonds, et al, even in the worst-case scenario -- a grand slam -- the odds are 98.2%. Not exactly reason to hope, but certainly no reason to feel that pitching to Pujols was the only option the Rockies had. Jim Edmonds is a tremendous hitter, but there's only one best hitter in baseball, and you probably shouldn't pitch to him with the game on the line.

I would love to have (Mesa) on my team any time. I know I've had some success in the past against him. But he I know he's going to challenge me. The last thing he wants to do is walk me and have the bases loaded.
-- Albert Pujols

And our next candidate for Class President, Albert Pujols...

Actually, it might make for an interesting side-study to compare Albert's walk rate vs. Latin pitchers with his rate vs. non-Latins. A year or so ago, a SABR member did some research on types of pitchers who are more likely to respond to a home run by hitting the batter, trying to determine whether players in certain cultures had an element of pride that factored into their performance. Omar Vizquel, please call your office

It's Albert Pujols. It's like Barry Bonds before. It's Albert Pujols now. They're not going to call him out ... For you to get him out, he has to swing through it. Or hit it to somebody and have them catch it. They don't want to call a strike on him like that.
-- Jose Mesa

I understand that it must be frustrating to pitch to Albert, but please give some respect, Jose. When you compare Albert's (overly) magnanimous comments about Mesa with Mesa's about Pujols, you realize that talent isn't the only thing that separates these guys. You don't say

He's a game-changer.
-- Rockies manager Clint Hurdle of Albert Pujols

When you're going good, you want to be in that situation. I like the situation, of course.
-- The Great Pujols

Can't you just see Albert saying this with that little grin of his? By the way, when I declared that Pujols was slumping, I was just joking. Seriously. Arf, Arf

I was just trying to stay out of the double play.
-- TLR on sending Juancarnacion -- 9-for-14 vs. Mesa -- to pinch-hit in the 8th

Just when you think this guy's all about animals and barking elbows, he shows he's got a funny, human side.

Roll call: Rockies 6, Cardinals 2

2006-05-09T14:16:00.000-05:00

Jason Marquis: With a Q of 38.7, Marquis's performance last night was the second-loudest (read: worst) outing of the season.

DATE	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	G/F	GS	Q
5/8/06	6.0	10	2	3	0	8	9	0.9	25	38.7
5/3/06	5.7	8	0	4	3	6	8	0.8	32	45.9
4/28/06	5.0	8	2	4	3	7	6	1.2	22	32.5
4/23/06	6.0	7	2	2	2	11	5	2.2	36	45.6
4/17/06	8.0	3	0	1	2	11	11	1.0	73	68.0
4/12/06	6.0	7	1	0	5	10	3	3.3	51	56.0
4/6/06	5.3	5	0	3	5	6	6	1.0	52	48.3

If you'll recall, "loudness" is not very appealing in a finesse pitcher. It may be time to revisit tenet #7 of the Bill James Primer: "A power pitcher has a dramatically higher expectation for future wins than does a finesse picther of the same age and ability." Sean Forman has a good overview, listing three corollaries:

Strikeout rates are the best long-term predictor of a player's career.
A pitcher with a high strikeout rate can slip somewhat and still be successful.
A pitcher with a low strikeout rate who slips will likely be hit very hard and leave baseball quickly.

Perhaps the last one is most disturbing vis-a-vis Marquis. From his PFR -- Power-Finesse Ratio (BB+SO/IP) -- you can see a downward trend throughout his career as he has become more and more a finesse pitcher. I'll compare him with Chris Carpenter, so we can get a feel for "what's good." Even though Carpenter isn't the quintessential "power" pitcher, since he gives up so few walks, the point is that he's retaining his PFR level; Marquis is going down, down, down: It's too soon to stick a fork in Marquis, but his trade value is at a three-year low, and if any teams other than the Red Sox listen to Bill James, they may conclude that Marquis is indeed slipping into oblivion. Since neither he nor Dave Duncan has a clue as to what's wrong with him (other than that it may be mental), perhaps it's best if he skips a turn in the rotation to try to figure it out, and slot in Adam Wainwright or Anthony Reyes for a turn (or two; see below). Judging by Marquis's secondary indicators, he's likely peaked: Then again, it could be worse: The Cardinals could've been paying Matt Morris nearly twice as much as they're paying Marquis to pitch just as badly -- and for two more years. Ricardo Rincon: We hardly knew ye. Sid Ponson: Who takes his spot start in the rotation? As Joe Strauss over at the Post notes, the team won't need a fifth starter until May 20, when they play KC. Why not Anthony Reyes, who's pitching well, if not up-to-expectations down in Memphis (Rob at The Birdwatch thinks so, too)?

Player	G	GS	IP	WHIP	K/BB	ERA	qDIPS
Anthony Reyes	6	6	37.1	1.04	7.00	3.62	3.49
Dennis Tankersley	6	6	33	1.76	1.82	6.27	3.75
John Webb	7	7	38.2	1.66	1.92	4.89	3.91
Brad Voyles	3	3	18	1.22	2.60	1.50	4.03
Randy Leek	5	5	33	1.27	2.71	3.55	4.59
Matt Smith	7	2	18.2	1.82	1.14	7.71	4.67

After all, facing KC couldn't be that much harder than Nashville, could it? Larry Bigbie: He's off the DL and back with the big club. But he hardly sounds ready to play: During his Memphis rehab, he was 5-for-35, with 14 strikeouts. With the way JRod is playing, Bigbie will have to settle for being Gary Bennett's replacement for the late-inning pinch-hitting role. Eli Marrero: You remember him, right? According to the Rocky Mountain News, Rockies' manager Clint Hurdle said Eli Marrero could start a game at catcher soon, possibly vs. the Cardinals:

"It seems kind of silly not to try it as well as he's been swinging the back," Hurdle said.

"Swinging the back"? I'm not sure what that means, but maybe I don't want to know...

Quotebook: Cardinals 9, Farmlins 1

2006-05-08T18:00:00.000-05:00

We came in with a four-game losing streak, and we didn't want to take them for granted and lose another three games. We took one game at a time. We ran the bases aggressively, we hit the ball the other way. We just tried to be aggressive in everything we did.
-- Albert Pujols

Really, Albert, I don't think anyone was worried about the AAAA Marlins sweeping you. As for running the bases aggressively, I'm assuming Albert's not including Juan Encarnacion, who should've scored on Spiezio's bizarro Jeffrey Mayer double. Any bets that Juancarnacion doesn't play out the life of his three-year contract with the Cardinals? By the way, who was the more apathetic/pathetic baserunner yesterday, Miguel Cabrera or Juancarnacion? As for Albert , he's slumping. I know, it's hard to consider someone who is 4-for-his-last-13 flagging, but for Albert, it's a slump. But in a game in which he strikes out looking against a rookie lefthander, grounds out to shortstop and pops out to the second baseman on a 2-1 count against journeyman Joe Borowski, that's not a good sign. Pu's recent WPA% performance:

You don't really want a record when you're a reliever. Relieving is about other stuff.
-- Josh Hancock

Man, I knew I liked this guy for some reason. Baseball Prospectus, for starters, has some "other stuff" that Hancock and other interested parties might prefer to read, such as ARP (Adjusted Runs Prevented from scoring), Relievers wins expected and inherited runs prevented. For his part, Hancock is third on the team in Adjusted Pitching Runs. The real bullpen warriors, Adam Wainwright and Brad Thompson, are among the league leaders: ARP

Wainwright: 5.9 (9th in NL)
Thompson: 5.8 (10th)

Relievers wins expected

Wainwright: 0.773 (13th)

I'm not going out there and then they lose me for the whole season.
-- Sidney Ponson

I appreciate El Sid's honestly and willingness to lean against being a "hero type," as TLR says, and put the team first. But what's this "they" stuff? Shouldn't it be "we"?

I didn't want to give up Falkenborg's run. I took the win away and scored his run. I hope he's not mad at me. I'll take him out for a drink or something.
-- Josh Hancock

I guess in the pecking order of salaries, when you're only making the league minimum, you make amends with your fellow league-minimum teammates by buying their drink instead of their dinner. Further demonstrating the silliness of the Win, the official scorer yesterday was forced to choose between relievers with whom to credit the win, after Ponson departed before completing the requisite five innings for a starter. In those rare cases, perhaps we can all agree to award the Win -- if we must -- to the pitcher with the best WPA%. In this case, it was... well, I'll let you decide who the most effective reliever was. Multiple choice:

Pitcher	IP	H	HR	ER	BB	SO	LI	WPA
A	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	0.6	4.4%
B	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	0.3	1.1%
C	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0.4%
D	2	2	0	1	0	0	0.2	-0.3%

LI: Leverage Index WPA: Win Probability Added Answers are at the bottom of this post.*

We have a lot of guys in this clubhouse who are able to swing the bat.
-- Albert Pujols

One of those guys is Scott Spiezio, who is increasingly looking like the best move of the offseason, filling in tremendously for Sco-Ro. And another is John Gall, who happily had a pinch hit -- good to see him get the monkey off his back, as he drove home Pianoback.

That's baseball.
-- So Taguchi on his distinction of making two outs in an inning (though he had two RBIs)

So can smile about it. He netted a 1.5% WPA, so he ultimately had a positive impact on the team's chances of winning yesterday.

Anytime you've got an elbow that barks, it's something we're concerned about.
-- TLR

I'm sure we all care about the welfare of abused animals, but when the manager talks about barking elbows, it's a sign that he may be spending a little too much time with his canine buddies. As Sally Albright once said, "Who's the dog in this scenario?!" *WPA% Answers A. Thompson (the correct answer) B. Hancock C. Flores D. Falkenborg

Caption this photo

2006-05-05T17:59:00.000-05:00

Stats: JEd vs. lefties

2006-05-05T17:53:00.000-05:00

In last night's loss to Houston, Jim Edmonds was 1-for-3 vs. Andy Pettitte, against whom he'd struggled in his career. He's now only 4-for-33 against the former Yankee (question: after a few years now, who more still looks out of place in his current team's uniform, Pettitte or Tom Glavine?) with a line of .121/.147/.242/.389. It seemed like JEd was sitting more often this year against lefties, so I thought I'd look into it (hat tip: Matt Sebek). So far in 2006, he's had 23.8% of his total plate appearances vs. lefties, which is down slightly from last year (25.2%). My theory was that over his Cardinal career, JEd has been used increasingly more discriminatingly against lefties, which yields a better performance against them. The numbers bear that out somewhat: Comparing his OPS splits vs. lefties, he's been getting closer and closer to his OPS vs. righties (e.g., in 2001, he hit .974 vs. righties, but only .739 vs. lefties; in 2005, he actually hit better vs. lefties with a .969 compared with .919 against righties). But his percentage of total plate appearances against lefties went down steadily until 2005, when it jumped up to 25.2%. So far in 2006, he's been bad no matter what arm the pitcher's using, so it's difficult to figure out (other than the shoulder problems). I'd look for him to continue to be used judiciously against southpaws, unless Albert misses some time with that back problem. In either case, what will happen with his OPS is anyone's guess.

Quotebook: Astros 5, Cardinals 4

2006-05-04T14:30:00.000-05:00

Obviously, I battled through the game. I went as long as I could. I put my team in a hole early. They got a couple of hits on good pitches.
-- Jason Marquis

I've noticed lately that the word "battle" has become a popular euphemism for "struggle." At any rate, I've reworked my Q (Quiet) scoring for finesse pitchers like Marquis, so let's see how his performance last night compares:

DATE	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	G/F	GS	Q
5/3/06	5.7	8	0	4	3	6	8	0.8	32	45.9
4/28/06	5.0	8	2	4	3	7	6	1.2	22	32.5
4/23/06	6.0	7	2	2	2	11	5	2.2	36	45.6
4/17/06	8.0	3	0	1	2	11	11	1.0	73	68.0
4/12/06	6.0	7	1	0	5	10	3	3.3	51	56.0
4/6/06	5.3	5	0	3	5	6	6	1.0	52	48.3

I think those are out in any ballpark. I think he hit his about 430; I hit mine about 425.
-- Albert Pujols on John Rodriguez's and his 9th-inning blasts, only one of which was a hit

I'm a bit of a radical when it comes to outfield fences (I'm opposed to them), but even a normal, reasonable fan would have to admit that there's something wrong with a park not named Polo Grounds whose outfield fences are 315' one way and 435' another (a difference of 120'). Speaking of Albert, whose 7th-inning home run wouldn't have been constrained by the dimensions of any ballpark, not only set the record for home runs in April, he also tied the less-ambiguous mark (as Rob Neyer recently pointed out, many seasons have not begun until well into April) of home runs in his team's first 25 games. Here's the list, courtesy of SABR's undisputed king of home-run records, David Vincent:

Player	Year	HR
Albert Pujols	2006	14
Cy Williams	1923	14
Ken Griffey	1997	13
Ken Keltner	1948	13
Willie Mays	1964	13
Mark McGwire	1992	13
Mike Schmidt	1976	13
Luis Gonzalez	2001	13
Roy Campanella	1953	12

It felt like we were down by 10, but we were only down by two. We were still alive. We had a lot of fight left in us. We never quit.
-- J-Rod

I wonder if the team's feeling like they were down by 10 had anything to do with their collective lack of confidence -- and hope -- in Marquis.

He was doing something right. He doesn't have anything that was tricking us out. He was just making good pitches. That's why he wins 20 games in the National League any year.
-- Albert Pujols

Though he's won 20 games "only" twice, using Baseball Prospectus's translated statistics, Oswalt should have three 20-win seasons to his credit (if you're interested in that sort of thing). However, he's gotten lucky overall, as his career Winning Percentage is actually better than it should be:

	Actual			Normalized
YEAR	W	L	%	W	L	%
2001	14	3	.824	16	3	.842
2002	19	9	.679	24	7	.774
2003	10	5	.667	12	6	.667
2004	20	10	.667	23	9	.719
2005	20	12	.625	21	13	.618
2006	5	1	.833	18	18	.500
Career	88	40	.688	114	56	.671

Note: Wins and losses are set using the pythagorean formula with average run support, with the pitcher's actual deviation from his real expected win percentage added back in. -- BPro

It was real rough for him early and he got better.
-- Tony LaRussa on Marquis

I wasn't there to hear TLR's quote in person, but in reading it print, I can't help but think that it sounded a lot like this exchange: Sir Bedevere: What makes you think she's a witch? Peasant: Well, she turned me into a newt! Bedevere: A newt? Peasant: ... It got better.

If I make a team, that's the first guy I put on my team. He still has nasty stuff. It was just one game last year - it's over. They advanced to the World Series, and I'm sure he was more excited about that. He's still one of the best closers in the game.
-- Pujols on Brad Lidge

Ah, the mind games! Since we know Albert can't be serious, we can only conclude that he's playing some head games with Lidge. No doubt Lidge will get word of Albert's magnanimous-sounding remarks and suddenly, he'd have a burst of pride that will mix in with the recent reality that Lidge has been far from his best. As Lidge ponders how he could be so great in Albert's eyes and yet be so bad lately, he'll feel even more pressure to perform, lest he reveal any shortcoming that causes The Great Pujols to esteem him less. Brilliant, Albert!

Quotebook: Reds 3, Cardinals 2

2006-05-03T15:00:00.000-05:00

We were trying to pitch to a wide plate. I think the pitch he got was way too good. ... I'm not sure what he was doing 2-0, but he shouldn't have been pitching on top of the plate.
-- TLR
We were supposed to be pitching around him -- don't give him anything to hit. The ball that I threw him was actually supposed to be in the dirt and it just wasn't. It was a split. That happens every once in a while. He took a 2-0 offspeed pitch and jumped on it. Tip your cap to him.
-- Brian Falkenborg
"I was surprised [he pitched to me] after he went 2-0. After I took the second pitch, I was seeing the ball good. I thought there was no way I would see a fastball. I was ready for anything off the plate. I got a changeup up.
-- Javier Valentin

When the pitcher's trying to throw a splitfinger fastball in the dirt and the hitter sees it as a changeup up, the outcome is one of two things: Either the pitch does what the pitcher intended and the batter is badly fooled, or the pitch remains imminently hittable and the pitcher is badly fooled.

[Williams] dodged a bullet in the first inning. That helped him. But he just pitched better.
-- TLR

Williams dodged a bullet even before the first inning. It was when he read the lineup and saw that Edmonds and Pujols were on the bench. You don't say

If we can continue to play like we are now, we're going to be there.
-- Javier Valentin

~~September~~ May callups

[It was] not automatic, but he's the guy that got recommended. He pitched well enough to earn the call.
-- TLR on Falkenborg
I had a feeling he was going to start with a slider, try to get a strike away. It dove away, and I took a decent pass at it. And then, yeah, from there, I could have tightened it down a little bit more. He was looking for me to chase, which I did.
-- John Gall

It's probably going to take a few games for callups like Gall and Falko to adjust to the higher level of play. If nothing else, it's a good reminder of just how different it is in the major leagues. An outstanding AAA closer can be a middling middle reliever in the bigs. Ailing Albert

It was pretty tough coming in today. I wanted to play, but [manager Tony La Russa] told me to be smart with it.
-- Albert Pujols
He jammed it sliding into first base on the homestand. It's sore. Day games after night games ... it just hasn't responded enough to where he should go out there without risk.
-- TLR

Reason #12435 that baseball teams have managers. Third-base coaches may have become irrelevant, but managers still make important decisions (and players have to listen to them). Not everyone on the team has a JD Drew-like attitude when it comes to playing hurt, and Albert has shown that he needs someone to make the decision for him. One of Albert's youthful indescretions is that he pushes the envelope to the point of recklessness, sliding into first on close plays, ranging too far afield or being overly aggressive on the basepaths. In time, as he matures, he'll learn how to pace himself, not only during a season but during his career. Another great Cardinal first baseman, Keith Hernandez, was often misunderstood because he learned this: His methods for relaxing -- infamously doing crossword puzzles in the dugout during batting practice -- and saving his legs (not sliding into second base on double plays) earned him scorn from the media and from his Cardinal manager, but ultimately benefited him and the teams he played for. Certainly, it's a fine line between hustle and self-preservation, and at times, it's probably antithetical. But for the Cardinals to be successful in 2006 -- as well as over the next several years -- Albert needs to grasp this balance and possibly make tradeoffs. Hopefully it won't take a serious injury for him to learn the lesson. Decisions, decisions

To turn and wheel and throw on 'maybe' ... I'd rather take the out at first.
-- Falkenborg on ignoring Yadier Molina's call for a throw to third base

Was Falko's logic sound? Win Expectancy (courtesy Walkoff Balk) from the Cardinals's POV:

Case	9th inning: Sac bunt	WExp
start	runners on second and third, 1 out	17.5%
best	runners on first and second, 1 out	26.7%
worst	bases loaded, no outs	9.7%
	Risk:	-7.8%
	Reward:	9.2%
	Total:	1.4%

Turns out that the risk would've been worth it, Brian. The lesson here? Listen to your catcher. Besides, it's a lot easier for a veteran catcher to defend his call than a rookie pitcher. Since we're looking at game decisions, the Cardinals hurt themselves yesterday on the bases. Who knows whether Juancarnacion hits his home run in the 3rd if Luna is still on base, but let's see if the stolen-base attempt was worth the risk:

Case	3th inning: Luna CS	WExp
start	runner on first, 1 out	68.4%
best	runner on second, 1 out	69.9%
worst	no one on, 2 outs	66.5%
	Risk:	-1.9%
	Reward:	1.5%
	Total:	-0.4%

Now, if it were a hit-and-run play, the odds tip in the Cardinals' favor. But as a stolen base attempt, it was a slightly bad idea, but not a big-enough misstep to grouse about. Fast forward to the 6th inning, when Molina was thrown out:

Case	6th inning: YaMo CS	WExp
start	runner on first, two outs	74.4%
best	runner on second, two outs	76.3%
worst	no one on, three outs	73.0%
	Risk:	-1.4%
	Reward:	1.9%
	Total:	0.5%

Probably a good idea (though the percentages don't account for the speed of the baserunner, Mr. Pianoback himself). While we're at it, let's see if America's most popular manager, Jerry Narron (97% job approval rating) fared any better with his decision to have Edcarnacion try to steal second (from Cincy's point-of-view):

Case	8th inning: Edcarnacion CS	WExp
start	runner on first, 2 outs	57.9%
best	runner on second, 2 outs	59.5%
worst	no one on, 3 outs	51.7%
	Risk:	-6.2%
	Reward:	1.6%
	Total:	-4.6%

Interestingly, this was the worst decision of the three. Luckily for Narron, TLR worsted him (what's the opposite of "bested"?) by bringing in Falko. Perhaps he was trying to stick with the "Memphis Day" lineup theme. By the way, YaMo may not be helping the team win with his feet or his lumber -- indeed, with an average -0.6 WPA%, he's hurting the team's chances -- but he's still producing with the leather. His pickoff of Freel in the 5th and his throw-out of Edcarnacion in the 8th were downright Pudgelike (and for those of us who remember the Reds' #5, Benchlike). Speaking of catchers

I was looking for a fastball down and away because he started me off like that the first two at-bats. Then certain things were said. I can't repeat it, but I'm not going to let anybody talk to me like that. It's intense out there. I don't think a lot of people really know how intense it is.
-- Jason Kendall on his kerfuffle with John Lackey

I know, I know. This quote has absolutely nothing to do with the Cardinals or sabermetrics. But it says something about the classic rivalry of the batter and pitcher and about the coolness of Jason Kendall. It takes some cojones for a guy who's 6-0, 205 lbs. to rush a guy on a mound who's 6-6 and 235 lbs. It didn't look like Kendall got any punches in, but he tackled the lippy Lackey, and with Angels' catcher Jeff Mathis on his back. That's toughness.

Around the horn: Mark Mulder, heartthrob

2006-05-02T14:02:00.000-05:00

The Detroit Free-Press notes that Mark Mulder is on OK! magazine's list of sexy sluggers:

His card notes that he is engaged and carries the following description: "Growing up in the Chicago suburbs, this pitcher adored the White Sox. Now, he's the one being adored!"

Would that Mulder's statistics were as adorable. Like last year, he's been consistently inconsistent in 2006: Perhaps Mulder could skip his every third time in the rotation and do a photo shoot. Nah, that'd be Too Sexy! Missed opportunity? The Cardinals had their AAAA lineup in today to face Reds' lefty Dave Williams, emptying their bench to start John Gall, Hector Luna, Scott Spiezio (in place of Pu) and So Taguchi (in place of JEd). I understand the need for rest (unfortunately for Pujols, injury rest) especially in the middle of 20 consecutive games without an off-day, but maybe yesterday's was the game to give Pujols and Edmonds the night off. Their splits against Williams and Arroyo:

Williams	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Edmonds	10	4	1	2	3	.400	.538	1.100	1.638
Pujols	19	7	2	3	6	.368	.400	.947	1.347

Arroyo	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Edmonds	9	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000
Pujols	11	3	1	1	3	.273	.429	.636	1.065

The talented Mr. Luna Brad Evans, SI's Talented Mr. Roto, rates Hector "Bella" Luna a "Moderate Buy":

Lowdown: Cracking three multihit games in his last four, Luna is beginning to develop into a legit everyday player. Getting a trial run hitting second in front of masher Albert Pujols, Luna has responded well with five hits in his last 12 at-bats. A jack-of-all-trades, Luna is a line-drive hitter capable of tallying homers in the low double-digits and swiping 10-12 bases. His position flexibility makes him a very attractive player in NL-only and deep mixed leagues for those who appreciate interchangeable parts. With NL pitchers beginning to give Pujols the rubber chicken treatment, Luna will continue to surprise as long as Tony La Russa pencils him in at the two hole. Still only 26, Luna could be in line for a .280 BA, 11 HR, 50 RBI, 65 R, 10 SB season if he can register 375+ at-bats.

Be careful what you wish for I'd been banging the John Gall drum recently, and now that he's up for what he hopes is grande-sized cup of coffee, I feel guilty. That's because fan-favorite Skip Schumaker was sent down to Memphis today in exhange for reliever Brian Falkenborg. Though not directly related to Gall's ascendance, Schumaker's departure certainly had to do with the overpopulation (in TLR's eyes) of the offensive bench -- outfielders, in particular -- and a dearth of relievers. I was hoping for a Lenny Dykstra-like season from Shoe, but he'll be back, of course. Fantasy Cardinals Speaking of rotisserie baseball, the aptly named Phil Witte of the Whittier (Calif.) Daily News isn't trading Albert:

Trading has become a lost art in fantasy baseball. Rather than digging through the rosters of every other team in the league to find a perfect excess where you have a need, most fantasy players these days just seem to pick some scrub from their rosters and offer it up for a Hall of Famer on some other roster. This tactic is one I refer to as the asinine trade offer. I have already received the first asinine trade proposal of the season: Andy Pettitte for Albert Pujols. It might have been a good trade one week into the 2001 season. This lazy fishing expedition is attempted in the hopes that the other party either: A) is an idiot, or B) accidentally hits the "accept" button instead of the "reject" button in their haste to decline.

I have to confess, I've tried this before. It takes a village The Business Journal's Lisa Brown via MSNBC on the plans for the Ballpark Village:

The retail at Ballpark Village will face the streets on which it borders. The development will be designed to attract shoppers and visitors 365 days a year, with several entertainment venues, including an auditorium for performing arts.

Did you know? That recently disabled reliever Ricardo Rincon is the shortest pitcher in the majors? Perhaps you did (I didn't), but if you want to read more about the ongoing bias against diminutive hurlers, Kevin Gemmell of the San Diego Union-Tribune has an interesting article. April Flukes The Baltimore Sun's Dan Connelly unveils his top flukes to date, devising a 1-10 system with 10 being the most unreal. "The Cincinnati Reds are pennant contenders" scores an 8, while "Albert Pujols is baseball’s best player" rates a 1. The story was posted before Cincy's unfluky defeat of the Cardinals last night, but Connelly's right: Doesn't Bronson Arroyo have to regress to the mean eventually? I know that dude! White Sox sign RHP Jeff Nelson to minor-league contract - AP headline Slugger threatened digit to keep quiet on steroids or else Bonds expected to play vs. Padres after injuring finger - SportsTicker headline I'm so (sob) sorry I left you -- for $85 million Emotional return as Thome comes back to Cleveland -- AP headline How times have changed 2006 All Star Game voting has begun - Vote today -- subject, MLB.com email Hoot 4th in ESPN's greatest living pitchers I've always considered "greatest living" lists a bit absurd to be honest. See what you started, Ted Williams? TLR's approval rating I suppose it's only natural in nation obsessed with public-opinion polls to rate major-league managers on their fan approval. The good news for TLR is that he's at 91%. Not surprisingly, the ratings are largely tied to teams' success. Unlike, say, presidential polls, which rely on the public's perception of reality, which of course can be easily manipulated, manager polls are based on an easily understood and hard-to-counterfeit bottom line: The team's won-loss record. What then, in the case of Boston's Terry Francona, who not only delivered a world championship a mere two years ago but has the current club in the top spot in the AL East? Could it be that long-suffering Red Sox fans now share more in common with the rival Yankees (Joe Torre: 68%) than a division and have become ungracious, what-have-you-done-for-me-lately types? Leonard Shelby Watch Bryan-College Station (Texas) Eagle -- gig'em, ags! -- has an update on the mental state of Brad Lidge:

Lidge admits his pitch location has been off, but insisted on Tuesday that the problems aren't in his head. "I'm as confident as I'll ever be," Lidge said. "As long as I'm not hurt, I know I can get guys out. That's not a big deal."

Remember Sammy Jankis!

Quotebook: Cardinals 9, Nationals 2

2006-05-01T13:55:00.000-05:00

The Benefactor

But the way Albert's swinging the bat right now, and if there's a guy on first or second and I walk, they're still going to walk him. It's come to that situation now. With runners on first and second, they're going to put him on.
-- John Rodriguez

Fangraphs just added WPA season stats to their already outstanding game graphs. One of the many cool things about WPA% is that it's a good indicator of how valuable a player is to his team -- thus making it a reliable metric for the MVP award (and, in a similar way, the Cy Young award). For April, cumulative WPA%:

Batter	G	WPA	WPA/G
Albert Pujols	25	322.3%	12.9%
Nick Swisher	22	187.6%	8.5%
Morgan Ensberg	26	168.2%	6.5%
Eric Chavez	23	161.7%	7.0%
Jonny Gomes	25	160.6%	6.4%
Derek Jeter	23	149.5%	6.5%
Victor Martinez	25	138.1%	5.5%
Barry Bonds	20	136.8%	6.8%
Lance Berkman	26	136.7%	5.3%
Todd Helton	15	128.4%	8.6%
Moises Alou	20	122.8%	6.1%
Michael Young	24	122.4%	5.1%
Jim Thome	24	121.8%	5.1%
Adam Kennedy	21	118.0%	5.6%
Ty Wigginton	23	115.6%	5.0%
Jason Giambi	22	114.4%	5.2%
Vernon Wells	23	114.0%	5.0%
Paul Konerko	24	107.8%	4.5%
Melvin Mora	26	103.6%	4.0%
Kevin Mench	19	101.2%	5.3%

Unfortunately, this stat is also the reason that Albert won't be able to keep up this pace: If they didn't already know, teams can simply look at Albert's importance to the Cardinals -- the next highest batter on the team is Hector Luna at 35.0% -- and walk The Great Pujols as much as possible. That notwithstanding, WPA% also shows just how dominant Albert has been: Not only is he leading all major leaguers, he's truly in a class by himself. Now take Carpenter, easily the most valuable pitcher in either league and who, if it weren't for his teammate, would be the Most Valuable Player in the NL:

Starter	G	WPA
Chris Carpenter	6	183.30%
Brandon Webb	6	130.30%
Jose Contreras	5	127.00%
Greg Maddux	5	126.40%
Roy Oswalt	6	116.70%
Mark Buehrle	5	101.20%
Tom Glavine	6	93.40%
Chris Capuano	6	85.80%
Mike Maroth	4	83.40%
Mike Mussina	6	83.20%
Curt Schilling	6	83.00%

Maybe back-to-back MVP and CY awards are in the cards, after all.

I hope they walk him 150 times this year.
-- Jim Edmonds

If Albert were to accomplish the feat, he'd be only the fourth player not presumed to have used steroids to do so.

Rank	Player	BB	Year
1	Barry Bonds*	232	2004
2	Barry Bonds*	198	2002
3	Barry Bonds*	177	2001
4	Babe Ruth	170	1923
5	Mark McGwire*	162	1998
	Ted Williams	162	1947
	Ted Williams	162	1949
8	Ted Williams	156	1946
9	Barry Bonds@	151	1996
	Eddie Yost	151	1956
11	Babe Ruth	150	1920

*unclean @possibly unclean The Beneficiary

They can walk him all year as far as I'm concerned. It's perfect for me ... I get a chance to drive in some runs and show some people I can still play.
-- Jim Edmonds
He's got something to prove. That's a good frame of mind ... There's added pressure, and he'll respond to it ... They're going to make someone else beat them and today, they did.
-- TLR

The logical problem with the strategy of "making someone else beat you" is that you still lose. That's good news for the Cardinals, of course. If JEd continues to benefit -- and deliver -- batting behind Pu, the team will almost certainly have to pick up his option for 2007. So in a real way, whether JEd plays for the Cardinals in 2007 is tied to Albert's walk rate in 2006.

So, I'm not so (awful), just a little (awful). I'm not totally worthless. I've worked on catching the ball now, I've gotten a few RBIs. Now I've got to work on getting a few more hits.
-- Jim Edmonds

In addition to runs, Jim's becoming quite a producer of quotes. His InsideSTL.com chat halfshirt comments even wound up on ESPN's UniWatch. Speaking of JEd, can we please stop doing the day-oh echo thing at the ballpark? It's a lame Yankee Stadium wannabe thing, and it jinxed Jimmy in the bottom of the 6th, I'm quite sure. The Team

Not without a couple or three hiccups, but we've really played good baseball. I never got the feeling that we're a red-hot club and everything was going our way. We're playing pretty well, and we're playing as hard as hell every day. We've just competed really well and swung some games our way.
-- TLR

I think fans have the same feeling. It begs the question: If the team is 17-8 without having hit any hot streaks, what will they be like when they do? As for playing hard, Gall and Eckstein both hustled on infield hits and eventually scored. Gall put his head down and sprinted as soon as he made contact, not looking back once -- great to see the fire from a guy who's giving it his all. As for hiccups, why is Eckstein sac bunting in the 8th with runners 1st and 2nd, none out and the pinch-pitcher just having been walked?

I liked what I saw today. It was encouraging.
-- Frank Robinson on Zach Day's performance

How sad is your team when your manager "likes" and finds "encouraging" your pitching line of:

	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR
Day	5	6	4	4	3	1	1

Then again, when you keep Albert in the park -- and entice him into a double play, to boot! -- it's encouraging. Just ask Bronson Arroyo and Dave Williams, the Reds' starting pitchers in the Cards-Red series starting tonight. Albert's splits against them:

vs.	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Arroyo	8	3	1	1	3	2	0	.375	.500	.875	1.375
Williams	19	7	2	3	6	1	2	.368	.400	.947	1.347

Supra-pan

I was feeling for some pitches early on, but [catcher Gary Bennett] helped me work through it and locate when I needed to. I just worked with what I had.
-- Jeff Suppan

With a Game Score of 55 and a WPA% of 9.8%, it was Soup's second consecutive strong start: It's seldom pretty, but Soup can get the job done. Not blessed with the stuff of other pitchers, he's always having to "work with what he has." Stuff so far in 2006, courtesy BPro:

Player	STF
Carpenter	25
Wainwright	22
Rincon	7
Looper	4
Flores	2
Mulder	2
Marquis	1
Ponson	0
Hancock	-5
Thompson	-5
Suppan	-10
Isringhausen	-44

Speaking of Stuff, how about that Adam WainwRight? He made veteran Royce Clayton look bad on a strike-three curveball. And I wouldn't be surprised if Alfonso Soriano hits the DL on account of his dislocated patellas... That hammer curveball he threw to strike out Zimmerman in the 8th was, dare I say, Matt Morris-like. Wainwright singlehandedly made it fun to stick around and watch the last innings of a blowout.

Caption this photo

2006-04-28T17:54:00.000-05:00