HOF: Ozzie or Omar?

With Ozzie getting some fresh ink from the P-D, Yahoo's Jeff Passan lauding Omar Vizquel's Hall of Fame credentials yesterday and the Giants playing the Cardinals this week (and yesterday's game not being particularly pretty), I thought it'd be salutary to compare the two outstanding -- and similar -- shortstops. Passan's article is heavy on qualitative analysis, and what statistics it has are somewhat secondary, such as sacrifice bunts and stolen bases. Passan sets Vizquel's career against the "modern" steroid-era player's stats, but Vizquel's HOF candidacy will likely be considered not in comparison to PED-inflated numbers but to the careers of shortstops already in the Hall, as well as the recent crop of "the shortstop era," none of whom are steroid suspects (Ripken, Jeter, Larkin). Using the Hall of Fame Monitor stat, I decided to compare Vizquel and Smith with some contemporary shortstops as well as HOFers who are less qualified than Vizquel (* denotes Hall of Famer):

Shortstop	Monitor
Alex Rodriguez	250
Cal Ripken	236
Derek Jeter	161
Ozzie Smith*	142
Barry Larkin	118
Alan Trammell	118
Nomar Garciaparra	115
Omar Vizquel	91
Lou Boudreau*	89
Phil Rizzuto*	87
Miguel Tejada	84
Dave Bancroft*	84

If you use the "better than lowest common denominator" argument, Vizquel has a case, with better HOF affinity than University of Illinois alum Lou Boudreau, the Scooter and Beauty Bancroft. Let's look at a few other stats. After all, the Monitor only tells us what to expect based on who is already in the Hall, not who should be there objectively. I've chosen Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP3), Equivalent Average (EQA) and, for a fielding metric (not perfect, I know), Fielding Runs Above Replacement (FRAR), all of which are explained below.

Shortstop	WARP3	EQA	FRAR
Cal Ripken	165.6	.281	775
Ozzie Smith*	135.5	.263	838
Alex Rodriguez	127.0	.318	400
Barry Larkin	121.0	.290	501
Alan Trammell	121.0	.280	572
Lou Boudreau*	107.5	.292	488
Omar Vizquel	98.2	.255	601
Dave Bancroft*	90.3	.260	532
Derek Jeter	85.5	.299	206
Phil Rizzuto*	77.4	.263	453
Miguel Tejada	71.2	.282	286
Nomar Garciaparra	68.7	.304	205

Ozzie may not be much of a "Cardinal" these days, but he was a better player than I give him credit for. Much of his WARP value no doubt derives from his fielding prowess, but his EQA, which measures only offensive contributions, reveals him to be Vizquel's hitting and baserunning superior. The more compelling HOF case can be made for Smith's NL positional rival, Barry Larkin. According to the Monitor, Larkin is eminently qualified for the Hall (certainly much more than Vizquel), and he's the best offensive shortstop not in the Hall. He and Alan Trammell are amazingly similar, and are both better bets for the Hall than Omar Vizquel. Now, if the 39-year-old Vizquel continues playing -- if as Passan notes, he feels closer to 28 -- he may equal Ozzie's Gold Gloves mark (13) if not his FRAR. He needs three more, but he's already done something Ozzie never did: win a Gold Glove after the age of 37. All told, though, I suspect it's more likely we'll see Trammell or Larkin -- more deserving players -- in the Hall of Fame someday. One thing's certain: When it comes to the Hall, Vizquel's not even close to to the Wizard. WARP-3: Wins Above Replacement Player. The number of wins this player contributed, above what a replacement level hitter, fielder, and pitcher would have done, expanded to 162 games to compensate for shortened seasons. EqA: Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. FRAR: Fielding Runs Above Replacement. The difference between an average player and a replacement player is determined by the number of plays that position is called on to make. -- courtesy Baseball Prospectus